March 8th, 2007
Jason
USD/JPY Position Half Way to Target
Well I finally figured out a way to take some basic chart pictures on my temporary trading pc so I wanted to show you the play I’m currently in with the USD/JPY. In a way it is a good thing that I missed the huge volatility spike over the past couple weeks for it has set up this beauty of a counter-trend fade that should easily yield 100+ pips in a fairly short period of time.
Had I been watching this closer, I may have attempted to fade this move much sooner thinking that “it couldn’t keep going lower”.
There was a channel breakdown that occured around 119.00 (as noted by the red box). Had I seen this sooner, I could have gone long sooner around the Fade Reversal Area abound 115.50…this is calculated by projecting the height of the box downward from teh breakdown and then going long.
By the time I noticed the powerful fading opportunity, price had already rallied 100 pips from this initial area but anticipating more bounce still to come, I went long 2 lots around 116.42 with an initial target of 118.00 and stop under the most recent low. There is a good chance that I will adjust my target and start scaling out tomorrow if price doesn’t make it to 118.00 because this is new territory for me in the FX Market and I don’t really know what to expect.
If I had to take a SWAG, I’d say that over the coming weeks/months price will continue to meander up to the 119-121 area and then roll over again and continue the downtrend. But my focus is on the next could days and scoring another 50-150 pips / lot. So far so good.
March 7th, 2007
Jason
I am about ready to loose my mind after already missing the most volatile market action since I began trading full time. So I called HP and they sent me a new hard drive for my trading PC (it’s only 3 months old!). I tried to run the recovery disks, but no go. They sent me a new set of recovery disks to try, no go. So now they’re sending me a box so I can mail back the whole thing so they can figure out what’s wrong with it. So I won’t have access to much of my trading data for at least another 2 weeks.
That being said, I couldn’t take it anymore and dusted off this old laptop of mine and hooked up an extra monitor to is so I could at least pull up some rudimentary charts. I’m currently long the USD/JPY looking for a bounce after the 700 pip crash over the past few days. I’m looking for a target profit of 100-150 pips in the short term. So far it has just kind of gone sideways on me.
I’m working on trying to find a way to take some snapshots of my graphs on my laptop, but its old and I’m affraid of installing and running too much new software lest I crash this computer too!
February 27th, 2007
Jason
I am writing this from my laptop because 2 days ago my Trading PC (yes, that’d be the new one that I bought new 3 months ago) crashed. The power went out in for no good reason causing my hard drive to fail to the point where I wasn’t even able to get to PC Recovery mode. For the past 2 days I have been trying everything I could to recover my data and get everything back up and running. I received a new hard drive from the manufacturer today but they sent me the wrong Recovery Disks so I have to wait another 2-3 days before I can even hope to get back online.
That being said, it looks as if I’ve been missing quite a lot of action in the markets here recently with the Dow down 5 days straght with today being the worst day since september 11th. I don’t have access to my charting software but I was able to pull up a chart on http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=&time=&freq=. NOT PRETTY.
The technical damage here is huge! And while I’ll be looking for a bounce in the days (and maybe even weeks) to come, it is definitely time to go from bull to bear mode. There will be a bounce, so don’t go selling all of your shares tonight. But look to hedge your bets and scale out of some those profits as price approaches climbs back up to around where they opened today (but there’s no telling how long such a move will take).
Wish I could say more, but until I get my trading computer back online, I’m affraid that I’m out of commission here for the next couple days.
Despite whatever may have happened today, keep in mind that with this kind of move, there will be plenty of opportunities for very nice profitable plays. I look forward to jumping back into the fray as soon as possible.
Good luck everyone…
February 23rd, 2007
Jason
EUR/GBP Position Closed
I covered my 2 short lots today in EUR/GBP for a net profit of 80 pips (40 pip profit * 2). After yesterday’s drop I had adjusted my stop to break even and this morning I awoke to find that price had already touched my target of .6691 but didn’t penetrate it so I didn’t get filled.
I got antsy as the 1-minute chart started to roll over so I went on ahead and closed the position out at .6693 as I am heading out with my wife today to look for some stuff to put in our new home and wasn’t going to be able to monitor the position. I’ll try to do some more in depth market analysis this weekend (both in the equities and FX markets) to see where my next play is going to come from.
As for now, I gotta run. Happy trading!
February 20th, 2007
Jason
EUR/GBP Hitting Resistance
I couldn’t help but fade this setup despite the fact that longer term, the EUR pairs have just broken out or area looking to do so and so are looking pretty bullish. But it was this EUR/GBP pair that really caught my eye.
Over the past 1.5 months, EUR/GBP has dropped 200+ pips in a very short period of time and has only now clawed its way back up to its original, untouched, starting point prior to the drop. This is usually a shortable setup in its own right, but add to that an FFF fade setup, price over-extension from the 10-EMA, and the rolling over ADX & RSI and it really is a no-brainer.
It may work, and it may not, but the Risk/Reward is very adequate for this kind of a play so I have gone short with a stop just over the most recent high looking for a pullback somewhere in between the 10 & 34 EMAs. If this play is going to work is should pan out within the next couple days. Anything longer than that and that could signify trouble for, as I said, I do like how the EUR is looking more longer term.
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