There are a few things I wanted to talk about today. First is that my EUR/GBP trade did not make it to my target (came within 10 pips before reversing!) and I got stopped out for a 47 pip/lot profit for a total haul of 94 pips for my longest-lasting trade of the year (22 days).

Now that I finally have my old trading files back up and in working order, I also wanted to share with you my updated trading spreadsheet showing my year-to-date FX trades. Overall, I really couldn’t be more pleased. I’m on a 10-trade winning streak and have really been on a roll since I switched over to FX…I hope to keep it going with the EUR/JPY trade setup discussed next.

Well it sure has been one heckuva ride over the past 6 weeks for the Yen. After rising 1,000 pips in less than a week across all pairs, it has taken 4-5 weeks, but has finally clawed its way back to where it started. Hence, we are getting into some PRIME fading territory for a number of reasons. First and foremost is that people who sold the Yen near the bottom and didn’t get a chance to sell during the initial 1,000 pip rise have been hurting badly over this past month and will no doubt relish the opportunity to get out at break even. This is the factor that has had me monitoring the Yen.

But now an actual trading setup is starting to form and I am admittedly VERY eager to get short the EUR/JPY sooner rather than later. Not only was that 1,000 pip drop huge, it was also right on the heels of an all time high for the EUR/JPY which makes this area of resistance all that much more potent as it is an empirically known supply area that is being revisited for the first time.

So I drew up my trusty FFF to see where the Fade Zone is setting up. And while we haven’t reached the Fade Zone yet, for the above reasons, and due to the fact that we are in 3rd up-thrust of the most recent bull move, I’d be surprised if it actually did make it all the way to the FFF reversal zone. So I am placing my limit sell order at 159.59 with a stop just beyond the FFF Reversal Zone and we’ll see what happens this upcoming week.

Have a Great & Happy Easter!

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Looks like the EUR/GBP is breaking down after from its consolidation so I went ahead and adjusted my stop to just above the high of the consolidation and am looking to take profit in the .6735 range. I think that price is going to be attracted to the .6700 area before it really turns back north at all for a couple of reasons.

1.) That’s where the support is were you to extend the increasing trendline

2.) That’s right around where the FFF indicates a reversal level

But I’m not going to get too greedy here. At a minimum I’ll look to close 1 of my 2 lots, but I may let the other half stretch for the .6700 area, we’ll just have to wait and see. As for now, I have to go get cleaned up as I just got back from day # 3 of painting our new house and I’m a mess!

And thank you to those of you who noticed I was gone for a little bit and wrote me with your very kind words, I do truly appreciate them all.

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GREAT NEWS EVERYBODY! My trading computer has been returned to me as good as new and I have finally managed to reload all of my programs back on it and am good to go. What a mess it is trying to trade on an old laptop. Sorry I haven’t been posting much, but between my pc issues and moving into our new house, I’ve been pretty busy.

I’ve really only made one trade in the past couple of weeks actually. It is the EUR/GBP trade below that I opened as an FFF Fade in conjunction with a MACD Divergence. Talk about picking a top! I was torn yesterday as to whether I should close out half of the position for a win or lett it all ride. I’ve decided to see what it does over the next couple days before making my next move. As of right now, my stop is just above break even and my trades have been on a tear recently so I’m just going to see what happens with this one.

My ideal target would be in the .6715-25 range so we’ll see if it gets there or not. It has a few key moving averages to break below before I get too excited so we’ll see what happens. Again, sorry for the lag between posts, but great to have everything back online. And a big thanks to those of you who have written to congratulate me on our new home purchase, Kim and I are both very excited :-)

Talk about some good timing. A couple days ago I closed out half of my USD/CHF trade for a 77 pip profit after the up move stalled on the hourly charts. I then moved my stop up to just under the most recent day’s low and was going to let the other half ride.

Boy am I glad that I did both of those things because yesterday price broke down and hasn’t looked up since. The play was always meant to catch a
very short-term move because the daily chart was setting up for a picture perfect bear consolidation. In hindsight, going for anything more than an hourly pop may have been an error on my part due to this fact. But I have another 43 pips net to show for my lesson which brings my net profit since switching to FX Trading in January to 1,045 pips accross 13 trades with an average profit of 80 pips/trade and Win Rate of 69.23%

I’ve been very hesitant to publish these numbers so far because, quite frankly, they are the best trading stats I’ve had since I started trading full time and I’m affraid that my present level of profitability is probably unsustainable over the long haul. That doesn’t mean I’m expecting to loose money going forward, but I’d be very surprised if I can spit out another 30% return on my portfolio next quarter. I hope I’m wrong, and I’m sure going to do my best to be wrong and keep these results going.