Archive for the ‘Resources’ Category

Biofeedback Machine for Traders

I just finished reading Brett Steenbarger’s book

The Psychology of Traing

And can honestly say that it was hands down the best book on trading psychology that I have ever read. In fact, when I was about half way through the book I couldn’t I went on ahead and placed an order with Amazon for his most recent book:

Enhancing Trader Performance

I’ve taken pages worth of notes and will be sharing some of the highlights of what I took from the book in upcoming posts. But I wanted to go ahead and share with you now one messsage that I really took to heart. Basically, it is the message that we all have multiple personalities to some extent that crop up during different times of the day, trade, etc; Depending on a lifetime worth of learning & habituation. Thus:

The Person Who Entered a Trade is Often not the Same Person that Exits a Trade

We usually like to think that we ARE one way or another. We are kind, intelligent, in control, yadda yadda yadda. And we are…at least some of the time. We also like to think that we ARE NOT ignorant, impulsive, closed minded, fearful. However, we all experience bouts of such feelings at one time or another in our lives/trading and we will usually rationalize it away saying something like “That’s not like me”…and we’d be right.

That most likely very well isn’t who you are in total, but it is a sub-personality that exists, often completely unnoticed & unchallenged, within the grander composite that makes up what we think of as our self. And when it rears its ugly head, it usually doesn’t leave much room for any of the other parts of you that we typically like to associate ourselves with. These different parts, personalities, whatever you want to call them, each have their distinct characteristics, triggers, & real estate within your brain.

So while we may have entered a trade in a perfectly healthy mindset, little are we aware that there is a timebomb up ahead in the market that’s going to hit one of our triggers for Angry-Impulsive-Gambler Trader. Once the transition is complete, when that switch flips, the resulting trades have the potential to be devastating to our trading accounts.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that none of these transitions happen in a vacuum. The bodily changes themselves that accompany these mood shifts (heart pounding, hands sweating, intrusive thoughts racing) are not necessarily bad as they are likely occuring in concurrence with significant market events (breakouts or turning points). If used properly, we can learn to use our own emotional & physical reactions much as we would a broader market sentiment indicator (ie: Do the oposite of what the general public is doing, & fade the extremes).

The other good news is that with the proper equipment we can learn to identify these sensations as they occur, take what useful information may be conveyed in them, and shift or remain in a more productive trading mindset.

Enter the Biofeedback Machine. After reading Brett’s book I found myself in the market to purchase some sort of biofeedback machine as I have long since noticed that my losses tend to clump together indicating a loss of emotional control. After doing some research and speaking with Brett, I found out that there are basically 2 major types of feeback machines out there. Ones that track your heartrate & ones that track the conductance (sweat) in your fingers.

From there I was able to start doing some comparisons of different products that are out on the market.

Freeze Framer 2.0 markets its product specifically for traders and looks like a rather comprehensive program for measuring one’s heartrate. Its the most expensive of the ones I found weighing in at around $300

ThoughtStream is an interesting product focusing exclusively on the Galvonic Skin Response (finger sweat) arena. Like Freeze Framer, it comes with games and tutorials to help guide you through the process of becoming more in control of your phsyical responses to stress. It comes in as the cheapest at $129.

The problem I ran accross was that I wanted both Heartrate & GSR monitoring. Enter Journey to Wild Divine. If you can get past the name & dig a little deeper, it seems to be a great compromise.

It was originally designed to help meditators to become more in control of their physical responses. It is designed as a computer game whereby you have to master varying degrees of heartrate & skin response levels in order to control the game. But apparently you can also just hook up to the machine outside of the game and have it output your GSR & Heartrate readings.

Its listed on the Wild Divine website for $160, but if you Click Here or the picture below, you can get it from Amazon for $148.



The only downside I saw with Wild Divine is that apparently you need to purchase a separate

Graphing Program

from their website if you want to be able to track the detailed stats of your progress over time, but even with that cost ($40), it is still cheaper than getting the Freeze Framer & ThoughtStream separately.

I went on ahead and ordered the Hardware & Game from Amazon yesterday. Once it comes in, I’ll then see whether or not the additional graphing software will be necessary. I’ll let you know what I think of it once it arrives. But I have a feeling that this will likely be the most useful stock market indicator I have ever purchased.

Free Mental Fitness for Traders eBook

I came accross this eBook this morning and found it to be incredibly insightful. The link is:

http://www.the-way-to-trade.com/fitness.pdf

It is one of the best free resources on trading psychology that I have read in a quite some time covering issues from why we fail to cut our losses & let our winners run to how we can use relaxation & visualization to help us uncover the master trader inside. It is something that Tiger Woods does before every match and has done since he was 14 years old. Yet I’ve yet to actually meet another trader in person that applies these simple & powerful techniques.

Econoday for the Economic Picture

Just found this link to Econoday (screenshot below) which is much better than the site I had been using to keep on top of the daily economic numbers & forecasts. Its a free site that gives you the synopsis of what is going on each day and which reports are going to be released.

Also, if you click on each report, it’ll give you the market consensus and consensus range for what the numbers are expected to be. It only takes 2 seconds in the morning to glance at and can really give you a heads up as to when to expect spikes in market volatility.


 
 

The Importance of Convergence

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Going through the process of revamping my trading plan has been quite an eye opening experience as I struggle to put into concrete rules & words a solid structure for the new indicators and processes that I have been adding to my style. So as an aid in this endeavor, I pulled up a log of all of my trades (simulated & live) for the past year. It takes a lot to really get me excited, but what I discovered hidden within my spreadsheet was something truly incredible that could forever change the way I approach trading!

For those of you who have been following this blog for a while, you know I don’t use such strong words that often. But what the numbers showed me came as a total paradigm shift for me.

OK, so let me get a little big closer to the point. In trying to construct a more definitive strucure for the various trading plays that I will take I first wrote down all the different little things that I will look at when deciding whether or not to take a play. These are the abbreviations that you see in my Trading Results & Analysis –> “SETUP” column. One of these days I plan on getting creating a definitions page to further elaborate on what they all are but here’s a quick list:

For simplicity’s sake, I’m assuming that the signal is giving me a Long sign, signified by +, but just replace the + with – when abbreviating for short signals.

TL+ : Trendline Cross Upwards
TXD+ : Positive TRIX Divergence
MD+ : Market Delta Stage 4
2ndTCKH+ : Second $TICK Hook
Vol+ : Significant Increase in Up Volume
-Vol- : Significant Drop in Down Volume
-Vol Fade : Low Volume Fade
mTL+ : Minor TL+
Sq+ : Long Bollinger Band Squeeze Signal
PD+ : Positive Price Divergence
Channel + : Posstive Channel breakout
2T or 2B : Double Top/Bottom
H&S : Head & Shoulders
IRS+ : Intra-Range Scalp
RBO+ : Range Breakout
MPB : Momentum Pivot Break
TXH+ : Positive TRIX Hook
H+ : Positive Price Hook

That’s the majority of the building blocks that I use to devise the different trading strategies that I employ. Hopefully you can at least have a little bit better idea of what all those letters mean in my “SETUP” column. So as I was reviewing the close to 1000 Simulated & Live trades I’ve made since the begining of the year I decided to take a look at the data from a slightly different angle.

As most of you probably know, there are 3 major classifications of the kinds of trades I make. They are:

2t : Scalps where I am targeting a quick profit of 1-3 ticks (on the ER2) ; I use a full lot size.
Trend : Plays where I cut my lot size in half, widen my stop, and go for a bigger portion of a move
2tr: Plays where I use a full lot size as in 2t, keep my stop closer, but go for a little bit bigger move than a mere 2 ticks

But instead of simply looking at the PnL of each of these categories, I decided to create a matrix depending on the number of factors (ie: TL+, TXD-, Vol+, etc…) that I had listed in the “SETUP” column for each trade. So I divided my trades into 3 groups:

1.) Those trades with only 1 entry factor
2.) Those trades with exactly 2 entry factors
3.) Those trades with 3 or more entry factors

Surprisingly, the number of trades in each group worked out to be about even. I then calculated my PnL and Average PnL for each cell and this is what I came up with:

Findings:

1.) The first and most astonishing thing that jumped out was the 3-Row. It was the only column that showed a net total profit and a net profit in each cell.

2.) The next thing was the Win Rate associated with those plays where there was a convergence of 3 or more factors. Not a single play-type had less than an 83% Win Rate!

3.) If the 3-Row was made of golden row, then the 1-Row was its evil twin. Over 80% of my losing trades occured when I entered based solely on one signal; I don’t know how I missed this fact until now.

4.) My Win Rate was not above 52% in any of the cells, although I did show a Net Profit in my Trend trades despite the 51% Win Rate…This can only be due to my Wins being greater than my Losses on average..but only barely.

5.) The 2-Row was a mix of the other two with 2tr & Trend being positive & 2t being negative. This makes sense actually because my 2t plays start with a .20 R-Unit target and a 1.00 R-Unit stop loss. So in order to achieve a positive net, my win rate must be at least 80%. Conversely, my 2tr & Trend plays can have a lower win rate and still be profitable because they still have the same Stop limit but are attempting to go for bigger chunks.

If I were to totally eliminate those plays in Rows 1 & 2 and solely take those in Row 3, then I would basically ensure the elusive consistent profitability that I have sought after for since I started trading full time 14 months ago. I could also selectively incorporate Row-2 trades into my overall plan to further increase my edge.

I have known the importance of patience for some time. (See This Article on Patience, which I wrote many months ago). But never before have I had such an objective way to quantify and measure what I am being patient for. All of this time, I have been trying to hone in and focus on the Quality of my setups and trading systems while totally ignoring the Quantity of converging factors.

By taking this knowledge and incorporating it into my trading plan and structure going forward, I hope to be able to look forward to more Row-3 and less Row-1.

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10-18-2006 Trade Review of the Day : Intro to Market Delta

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Introduction to Market Delta


Click to Enlarge

I recently came accross a wonderful educational site call TeachMeFutures.com that has a ton of free content and videos that could keep traders of all levels occupied for hours. Well lucky for me the first one I watched was a video done by Dr. Brett Steenbarger entitled “Assessing Market Psychology”.

I can’t recommend the video highly enough as it is chock full of great information about how to identify transitional structures in the marketplace (aka: Tops & Bottoms). Watch the video for a much more detailed description but in short Dr. Steenbarger identifies 4 major events to keep an eye out for that signify tops & bottoms.

1.) Momentum Extreme: When the bulk of the move and volume pushes price higher
2.) Price Extreme: Often price will continue to move higher but there are quantifiable signs of slowing momentum.
3.) Exhaustion: Marked as price tries to push to new highs but is unable to do so.
4.) Reversal: Bears (in the case of a reversing uptrend) step into the market to take their turn in the other direction.

What was interesting to me was how he quantified & identified each of these stages using a Market Delta chart. I’ll have a little more to say about MD in a second, but first lets get to the play:

The above chart is a 5-minute chart of today’s ER2. After an early rally, price had been falling all morning to this level where it gave off the signals that I interpreted to signify that a reversal was imminent. You can click on the chart to enlarge and see my more detailed annotations of the 4 specific things to look for per Dr. Steenbarger’s methodology.

This play couldn’t have worked out much better. In fact with his particular play, it showed a profit right from the first entry and never looked back.

What it is that Market Delta measures is the difference between the number of contracts being traded at the Bid versus the number being traded at the Offer. It operates under the assumption that aggressive buyers will want in badly enough to take out the offer price and this will eventually propel prices higher. So the numbers at each price level represent how many contracts go of off at Bid/Ask.

The Market Delta Footprint at the bottom of each bar is basically the cumulative difference of these numbers for the entire bar. When put together, this additional info acts like an X-ray into each bar so you can see what’s really going on.

To get Market Delta information, you can go to www.MarketDelta.com and check out a free trial of their software for a month. For those of you who have TradeStation, you can simulate the Market Delta information on a chart with a PaintBar Indicator. Click here to Download the Market Delta Indicator that I use. To donwload the indicator, you may first have to register with Traders Laboratory which only takes a second.

Anyway that’s my schpeel on Market Delta. I hope it may be of some assistance to at least some of you. I know I’ve found in tremendously useful in just the short time I’ve been using it.

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