Archive for the ‘Resources’ Category

WilyTrader.com has Moved to WisdomHound.com 12/1/2009

I wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be continuing to make posts here at WilyTrader.com, as I have recently started a new site at www.WisdomHound.com. The new site will be dedicated to finding the most useful and interesting nuggets of information relating not only to trading, but also to Business, Science / Technlogy, Entertainment, and whatever else I find most worthwhile each day :) I do hope you will check it out and Subscribe to the New Site if you find it useful.

Thank you all for your continued interest over the years with WilyTrader.com. I look forward to hearing from you at the new site!

Sincerely,

(for one last time) WilyTrader

WilyTrader ETF Watch

 

Introducing the WilyTrader.com ETF Watch

OK, so I have finally taken a few minutes to compile and make pretty the list of Sector/Internation/Market ETFs that I monitor when performing my Top-Down analysis.

In addition to being broken into the three categories, I decided to go ahead and color-code it as well to provide a quick and easy overview of what it is that I am seeing in the markets. The color-coding schedule will have to be a work in progress since this is my first day using it and all, but here’s what I’ve got so far:

Cell Background Color : Is used for assessing my sentiment of the security. (Red = Bearish, Green = Bullish, Yellow = Uncertain/Caution)

Text Color : This is used to denote those securities which I currently hold. (White = I currently own security in at least one account)

I am sure that more customizations will be added to this later, but it’s a start.

As you can see, I am currently trading USD, GLD, & IYR. I’ve been in Gold in one shape or another over the past few years and it has been far and away one of the most profitable trade I’ve ever taken. Now though, I am in the process of reducing my exposure to it somewhat and locking in my profits. Its not that I’m convinced a reversal is imminent, but I do believe that GLD will top out between $95-$100.

I entered USD on Friday and promptly got my teeth kicked in. This will probably stopped out (currently set @ $49.50) but we’ll see. If this does continue to run down I’ll keep a really close eye on it for another potential, and even better, long setup.

IYR has been a good trade so far. I expect it to continue to snap back to towards its SMAs in the ST but a lot just depends on what the markets do today as Friday’s session was very much one of directional uncertainty.

And for those of you who are waiting for an update on the FOREX markets, those will be coming soon…I’ve been away for way too long and am getting caught back up as quick as I can.

Valuable Lesson For All Novice Investors

I recently posted an article on basic trend identification on my recently created personal development blog at ComplexMind.com . For those of you who are new to this blog or to technical analysis is general, it may be well worth checking out or sharing with someone who you think might find it useful.

In my opinion it is the easiest and most effective way for typical investors to improve upon their current investment returns.

I chose to start the other blog so I could have a place to write about all the things that wouldn’t be appropriate for this forum including the more basic technical analysis that might just bore some of the readers here but that can really help people who want to take a little more control over their investments but don’t know where to start.

It’s also a place where I can receive and offer useful advice on any subject, not just those related to trading. I hope you’ll check it out and let me know what you think.

Intro to FX Market & Carry Trades

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Current InterbankFX Swap Rates

I wanted to take a second and post the current swap rates that can be found at the following address:

http://interbankfx.com/swap_rates.php

For those of you who may be new to the FX Market, it is very important that you understand what swap is and how it can both help and hurt your account. First a quick definition. Swap is basically the interest paid as a result of holding currency overnight. It can be positive or negative depending on the currency pair that you are trading. It is calculated and either added or subtracted from your account daily depending on the currency pair. This is due to the varying interest rates charged in different countries.

Right now the biggest difference is between the British Pound which is paying something in the order of 6-7% per annum and the Japanese Yen which is only paying .25% per annum. So when sell Yen to buy Pounds (aka: buying GBP/JPY) you will be paid 6-7%/365 * #Pounds and you will lose .25%/365*#Yen.

What makes this so promising is the leverage involved. In a typical FX Account you are offered leverage of 100:1 and a Standard Lot size is $100,000. But because of leverage, all you need to control this $100,000 is $1,000 in your account. Lets switch our example to the USD/JPY which is currently paying $13.75/day/standard lot. In this example, for the sake of argument, lets just say that the actual exchange rate between USD/JPY remains constant over the course of the year (extremely unlikely, but just bear with me).

So you invest your $1,000 and buy 1 Standard Lot of USD/JPY. Every day you will be paid $13.75 (or whatever the current differential is) regardless of any movement in the underlying rate. So over the course of a year you will have made $13.75 * 365 =
$5,018 in interest alone on your initial $1,000 investment. Now you may start to see the potential that exists. Hell the underlying USD/JPY cross rate could actually lose value by 600 pips and you would still make money.

Now lets look at what actually happened over the past year in the USD/JPY cross rate:

As you can see, the price at the end of the year was very close to the price at the beginning of the year which means that had you not had a margin call during the -1000 pip decline, that you would have made a 500% R.O.A. Over that same time, EUR/JPY was up over 1500 pips without ever having gone in the red. that means that on top of the $000’s in interest that would have been gained, there was also the potential for $000’s more in capital appreciation.

Bottom line is that the potential is there for great gains if you play your cards right, don’t over-extend your capital, don’t get greedy, and follow a plan designed to take advantage of this money…nothing like having the bank pay you to get leveraged.

Final Thoughts:

* These Carry Trades (as they are called) have been on a tear the past few years and many think they are due for a crash
* You still need to use sound analysis, entry, & exit techniques. Use the interest as gravy, not as meat unless you have a plan that is specifically designed to only profit from the interest (averaging down, scaling in/out can work if done properly)
* Just because 100:1 leverage is offered doesn’t mean that it would be wise to use it all. Drawdowns will occur and if you are leveraged to the hilt, your account will be decimated so just use some common sense here unless you just want to gamble

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FX School of Pipsology

In my effort to become a more informed FX Trader I stumbled across this website that I thought might be of interest to anyone who is interested in learning a little more about the Foreign Exchange markets.

www.BabyPips.com/school/

Those of you already versed in technical analysis can probably skip through a number of the lessons but there is still a lot of useful information on the site. I found the author’s insights into the differences between an FX standard, mini, and micro account interesting.

One of the main reason new traders fail is due to under capitalization. Professional FX Traders trade 1 standard lot ($100,000) per every $50,000 in equity that they have. However, it’s easy to loose sight of this fact when brokerages entice you by saying that you only need $2,000 to open an account. So before you dive in there and start trading $100,000 lots with a $2,000 account, ask yourself if you are really 25x more skillful than the professionals.

Based on your starting capital you should open the following kind of FX account:

Standard Account (1 lot = $100,000) : Recommended capital: $50,000/lot you plan to trade
Mini Account (1 lot = $10,000) : Recommended capital: $5,000/lot you plan to trade
Micro Account (1 lot = $1,000): Recommended capital: $1,000/lot you plan to trade

If your starting capital is less than $1,000 you should start with a demo account until you have enough to open a micro acct. And regardless of how much money you start with, the author recommends trading/practicing with a demo account for at least 2 months before placing a single live trade.

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