Archive for March, 2007

3-29-2007 Daily Trading Lesson

 

EUR/GBP Position In Black, Letting it Ride

GREAT NEWS EVERYBODY! My trading computer has been returned to me as good as new and I have finally managed to reload all of my programs back on it and am good to go. What a mess it is trying to trade on an old laptop. Sorry I haven’t been posting much, but between my pc issues and moving into our new house, I’ve been pretty busy.

I’ve really only made one trade in the past couple of weeks actually. It is the EUR/GBP trade below that I opened as an FFF Fade in conjunction with a MACD Divergence. Talk about picking a top! I was torn yesterday as to whether I should close out half of the position for a win or lett it all ride. I’ve decided to see what it does over the next couple days before making my next move. As of right now, my stop is just above break even and my trades have been on a tear recently so I’m just going to see what happens with this one.

My ideal target would be in the .6715-25 range so we’ll see if it gets there or not. It has a few key moving averages to break below before I get too excited so we’ll see what happens. Again, sorry for the lag between posts, but great to have everything back online. And a big thanks to those of you who have written to congratulate me on our new home purchase, Kim and I are both very excited :-)

3-13-2007 Daily Trading Lesson

 

USD/CHF Closed Half, Other Half Stopped Out

Talk about some good timing. A couple days ago I closed out half of my USD/CHF trade for a 77 pip profit after the up move stalled on the hourly charts. I then moved my stop up to just under the most recent day’s low and was going to let the other half ride.

Boy am I glad that I did both of those things because yesterday price broke down and hasn’t looked up since. The play was always meant to catch a
very short-term move because the daily chart was setting up for a picture perfect bear consolidation. In hindsight, going for anything more than an hourly pop may have been an error on my part due to this fact. But I have another 43 pips net to show for my lesson which brings my net profit since switching to FX Trading in January to 1,045 pips accross 13 trades with an average profit of 80 pips/trade and Win Rate of 69.23%

I’ve been very hesitant to publish these numbers so far because, quite frankly, they are the best trading stats I’ve had since I started trading full time and I’m affraid that my present level of profitability is probably unsustainable over the long haul. That doesn’t mean I’m expecting to loose money going forward, but I’d be very surprised if I can spit out another 30% return on my portfolio next quarter. I hope I’m wrong, and I’m sure going to do my best to be wrong and keep these results going.

3-9-2006 Daily Trading Lesson

 

USD/JPY Target Hit, Open USD/CHF

I closed out half of my USD/JPY position yesterday afternoon for a +94 pip profit & raised my stop to break even on the remaining half to give it a chance to make it to the full +146 pip target. And an hour ago, when I came back from the gym, I saw that the target had been hit for a combined 4-day profit of 230 pips.

Also, yesterday evening I opened up another long position on USD/CHF (See chart Below). While I’m usually not a big fan of range breakout plays as I just seem to have had bad experiences with them in the past, this one caught my eye for a number of reasons.

1.) The pair had fallen down into a prior known demand area from which prices had previously shot out of.
2.) Not only did prices fail to break down below this area, but they stalled & yesterday, price closed near the upper end of this range
3.) MACD momentum had long since turned higher & we are about ready to get a MACD cross
4.) GreenADX had turned higher and Red ADX turned lower indicating a possible change of trend to upside
5.) RSI crossed 50 to the upside

So I went long with a stop under the low of the range and a target of about 130 pips (the height of the range projected upwards). I’ll be looking to tighten my stop after today and will likely scale out half and let the other lot ride as I did with the USD/JPY trade…stick with what works right?

3-8-2007 Daily Trading Lesson

 

USD/JPY Position Half Way to Target

Well I finally figured out a way to take some basic chart pictures on my temporary trading pc so I wanted to show you the play I’m currently in with the USD/JPY. In a way it is a good thing that I missed the huge volatility spike over the past couple weeks for it has set up this beauty of a counter-trend fade that should easily yield 100+ pips in a fairly short period of time.

Had I been watching this closer, I may have attempted to fade this move much sooner thinking that “it couldn’t keep going lower”.

There was a channel breakdown that occured around 119.00 (as noted by the red box). Had I seen this sooner, I could have gone long sooner around the Fade Reversal Area abound 115.50…this is calculated by projecting the height of the box downward from teh breakdown and then going long.

By the time I noticed the powerful fading opportunity, price had already rallied 100 pips from this initial area but anticipating more bounce still to come, I went long 2 lots around 116.42 with an initial target of 118.00 and stop under the most recent low. There is a good chance that I will adjust my target and start scaling out tomorrow if price doesn’t make it to 118.00 because this is new territory for me in the FX Market and I don’t really know what to expect.

If I had to take a SWAG, I’d say that over the coming weeks/months price will continue to meander up to the 119-121 area and then roll over again and continue the downtrend. But my focus is on the next could days and scoring another 50-150 pips / lot. So far so good.

Computer Update

I am about ready to loose my mind after already missing the most volatile market action since I began trading full time. So I called HP and they sent me a new hard drive for my trading PC (it’s only 3 months old!). I tried to run the recovery disks, but no go. They sent me a new set of recovery disks to try, no go. So now they’re sending me a box so I can mail back the whole thing so they can figure out what’s wrong with it. So I won’t have access to much of my trading data for at least another 2 weeks.

That being said, I couldn’t take it anymore and dusted off this old laptop of mine and hooked up an extra monitor to is so I could at least pull up some rudimentary charts. I’m currently long the USD/JPY looking for a bounce after the 700 pip crash over the past few days. I’m looking for a target profit of 100-150 pips in the short term. So far it has just kind of gone sideways on me.

I’m working on trying to find a way to take some snapshots of my graphs on my laptop, but its old and I’m affraid of installing and running too much new software lest I crash this computer too!

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