Archive for December 16th, 2006

12-15-2006 Daily Trading Lesson

90% NYSE-Tick Play

This morning’s action was very choppy in nature. Despite this choppiness in price, the NYSE-TICK failed to spend any time below the 0-line. This type of behavior is typical of a strong trending day. On such days when the TICK has spent 90% of the time above the 0-line, a play that I will often take is to go long if/when the NYSE-Tick does manage to cross below the 0-line and then reverse.

This is precisely what happened this morning. Usually I would hold onto such a play and go for a larger trend-type move, but given this morning’s action, I decided to double my lot size & instead go for a small 2-3 tick scalp.

As can be seen, I waited for the NYSE-Tick to cross under 0 and then hook back up to the positive side. For convergence I also had a nice little 55-tick + Trendline Break & + Momentum Shift.

It was a nice, quick little play that scored a quick 3 ticks in a tough environment. Oftentimes this is the best that you can hope for when the markets are acting so choppy. My problem came later when the markets entered a downtrend. I didn’t want to believe it and kept unsuccessfully fading the move with the expectation that price would revert back to its mean and prior choppy nature. This pre-conceived notion costed me dearly today and turned what should have been a quick reaching of my Daily Goal into a day in which I instead hit my daily stop limit.

12-15-2006 Trading Review & Analysis

I had a rough day today. I started out well going 2/2 at the open and was 1 scalp away from reaching my daily goal. But I became impatient, pushed my luck on more than 1 occasion and ended the day down -3.46 R-Units after hitting my daily stop limit.

The most recurring problem that I faced today was staying too long in trades instead of cutting my losses or taking my profits sooner in the face of changing market conditions. I also attempted a lot of bad fades today without adequate confirmation to back them up. It is always rather difficult to have a positive result when you’re taking bad entries and sticking with them longer than you should.

I was not as flexible today as I needed to have been in order to have a good day. I became bored & impatient after this morning’s chop and was unwilling to admit a downtrend-day had developed after the breakdown. Monday I will have to pay more attention to

A.) My patience
B.) Make sure that I do not overstay my welcome on any given trade
C.) Ensure that I have adequate convergence before making fade plays.

Consecutive Days Hitting Net Daily Goal: 0
# Days Hitting Goal out of Last 20 (with goal of 16/20) : 2/4
Weekly PnL (Stop = -6.66) : -4.20 R-Units
Total PnL this Level (Stop = -10.00) : -3.64 R-Units

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