Archive for December 12th, 2006

12-12-2006 Daily Trading Lesson

A Simple Scalp After Low Counter-Trend Volume

This was the one trade I did well today.

After the nice price pop with huge volume following the Fed Announcement this afternoon price started to drift downwards in a pretty controlled manner. It did so on much lighter volume than the rally so I was on the lookout for some additional buy signals to go for a scalp.

They came a few minutes later when the 55-tick chart showed a nice looking Positive TRIX Divergence (TXD+) in conjunction with a Trendline Break (TL+) and a NYSE-TICK Hook+.

I was expecting price to at least run up into the purple resistance level shown of 797.50 so I put my exit order a few ticks below that at 797.20. Good thing I went conservative on that exit as price never made it to the line and soon reversed for a 3 point drop to the downside.

In retrospect, that little channel breakdown would have been an excellent play…wonder why I ignored it? Ah…hindsight.

12-12-2006 Trading Review & Analysis

All I can say for today is that I sure am glad that it was Simulated as I hit my daily stop limit for the 3rd consecutive day. It has been 2 months since I last had such a bad string of trades. I’d like to blame it on bad luck or some external market conditions (things have been pretty slow here recently), but the truth is that I have just been making more bad trades than I typically do.

I don’t know that it is lack of patience necessarily as I was very able to wait for trades today. (Hell, I only had 5 total today) No, I think it has more to do with the impulse control in the heat of the moment brought on by indecision.

The biggest mistake I made today had to do with my exits. On the first trade of the day, I stuck around too long and watched a nice profit turn into a loss. On my second trade I didn’t stick around long enough and got scared out of a trade that would have easily taken me to my Net Daily Goal.

#3 & 5 had some good things going for them but my entry was just premature as I failed to wait for a price signal after getting a couple of converging factors going for me.

So going into tomorrow my focus will be:

1.) Wait for price confirmation before any entry
2.) Have a clearly defined exit strategy for each and every trade

Consecutive Days Hitting Net Daily Goal: 0
# Days Hitting Goal out of Last 20 (with goal of 16/20) : 0/1
Weekly PnL (Stop = -6.66) : -2.60 R-Units
Total PnL this Level (Stop = -10.00) : -2.60 R-Units

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