Archive for December 4th, 2006

12-4-2006 Daily Trading Lesson

Slow & Steady Cashes In

Today I went 4 for 4 not netting more than .30 R-Units on any of my trades. However, at the end of the day I finished with more than what I started with after a kind of day that would typically leave me in the hole.

This is one of those typical trades that I made today that was good for a quick little counter-trend scalp after quite a little flurry of buying.

When I see a flurry of activity going off on the NYSE-TICK around the 1000+ reading, my radar goes into hyper-gear for signs of exhaustion & slowing momentum. I didn’t have to wait long to see what I was looking for:

The key to making successful counter-trend plays on such a trending chart is to not get greedy and go for too much. I didn’t know whether or not the 610-tick trendline would hold (turns out it didn’t and I would have made much more by holding, but that’s hindsight), so all I can do is take those high-probability setups that do occur and bank a little as I’m able.

On this entry the converging factors were:

1.) 55-tick negative Trendline Break (TL-)
2.) 55-tick negative TRIX divergence (TXD-)
3.) NYSE-TICK hook making a lower pivot high
4.) 610-tick & 2-minute TRIX Divergences

There was a lot to point towards lower prices for at least the immediate future so I went short at the Red Circle & covered at the green not long after. After entry, all I was looking for was a pullback to test the rising 610-tick trendline 5 ticks away. Not a lot of glory in this type of trade, but if you’re looking for glory, then you’re in the wrong profession.

12-04-2006 Trading Review & Analysis

While I didn’t hit my daily goal of 1.07 R-Units, I did c0me pretty close netting .80 R-Units on 4 trades. I have to say that I felt more comfortable trading today than I did all last week.

One weird point about today’s trading was that today, on a day when the ER2 was up over 1.50% with little sustained downward movement all day, all of the trades I made were to the short side. Not only that, but they were all profitable! It is yet to be determined whether this counter-trend tendency of mine is a weakness or a strength.

For me, I think that I just feel more comfortable interpreting and trading based off of the drying up of momentum (as measured by divergences, volume changes, and market internals) than I do trading momentum breakouts. As I’ve mentioned before, the days where I am most likely to loose the most money are on strong trending days like today as I’m just not as comfortable following a trend as I am scalping its pullbacks & picking tops & bottoms.

I won’t be able to consider myself actualized as a trader until I am able to fully integrate these two aspects of trading Trend Following & Counter-Trend Trading. But for now I’m happy to make money playing with a half of a deck as long as I don’t loose anything when the other half comes out.

Consecutive Days Hitting Net Daily Goal: 0
# Days Hitting Goal out of Last 20 (with goal of 16/20) : 2/4
Weekly PnL (Stop = -6.66) : +.80
Total PnL this Reset (Stop = -10.00) : -2.00R-Units

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