Archive for November, 2006

11-17-2006 Trade Review of the Day

Nice Double Bottom/Gap Fill Play

After this morning’s gap down I was leaning in the direction that price would likely bounce to some degree though I didn’t know how much nor did i feel strongly enough about it to fade the gap w/out some sort of reversal confirmation.

I first went long at A with a stop under the low of the day after the TL+ & 610-tick TXH+. However I became scared when price stalled and moved my stop to under the prior 2-minute bar’s low (an adjustment that is not called for by my trading plan in this circumstance.) Price then reversed and continued to rally for another 2 points. Perhaps a little too conservative on this play.

However, a few minutes later the 55-tick chart sported a beautiful looking double bottom after a 2nd Postive NYSE-TICK hook. I went long on the breakout and targeted the classic double bottom extension calculated by taking the distance between the low of 788.40 and the double bottom high of 789.60 = 1.20 points…and projecting this amount higher at the breakout, giving a price target of 790.80.

I put in a limit sell order a few ticks below that at 790.60 and was soon filled for a quick profit on a nice setup.

11-17-2006 Trading Results & Analysis

The good news is that I finished up today, on the first day of my new rotation. Bad news is that I didn’t hit my target and struggled with overly-cautious tendencies.

I just felt very very picky today and just couldn’t settle into a comfort zone. Plus every time I would place a limit order to fade a rising (or falling move) the price would stall & reverse before making it to my entry-zone. No big deal I suppose as better to be out wishing you were in than in wishing you were out.

So I only placed 2 trades today, both very early in the morning. Both were solid entries but I totally wussed out and jumped ship on the first trade without sufficient reason. See today’s review for more detail, but it should have been a solid winner instead of a small loss.

The second trade more than made up for it and went very well though so I was pleased. It’s going to take some time to get used to trading at this new level and I am waiting until next week to purchase some additional software that should help make order-entry much more comfortable. I’ll adjust though; In due time.

Consecutive Days Hitting Net Daily Goal: N/A
# Days Hitting Goal out of Last 20 (with goal of 16/20) : N/A
Total PnL over past 20 Days: +.40 R-Units

What’s Your Morning Routine?

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As a full time trader I think it is important to have a fairly constant morning routine before sitting down and putting your money on the line. Even if your routine is simply getting up, grabbing a cup of coffee, and sitting down and trading…that is a routine. The important thing though is that you are consistent in your approach to the markets.

As far as I am concerned, consistency is the holy grail of trading. We have all been on winning and losing streaks, that’s part of what makes trading so frustrating, that we have tasted some degree of success and know that it IS possible. In our struggles to identify those aspects that are contributing towards our sporadic success it is easy to get caught in a rat wheel and bounce from thing to thing to thing. This is fine to a certain degree as trading most definitely is a process of self-discovery. However, this process must be carried out consciously and with a great degree of exactitude if we are ever to truly uncover and bottle up those processes that lead to our personal success.

I am a very non-routine kind of person. I’ve never really liked making/having plans or doing anything in a repetitive kind of way. I’m more intuitive and until recently, have tended to get bored easily. Not really the ideal trading makeup. But there really is no personality trait that a lot of awareness and effort can not neutralize.

So a couple months ago, I decided to write down an explicit morning routine that I would follow every single trading day. I built some flexibility into it to accomodate my need for novelty & stimulation. Here is my routine:

After eating, brushing, etc,

1.) Turn on PC & Load all related software
2.) Check email and website-related material
3.) Meditate for at least 20 minutes
4.) Check Econoday economic forecasts for the day
5.) Review my Trading Plan & Supplemental Notes
6.) Read news & blogs
7.) Check overseas markets
8.) Read some uplifting and/or Spiritually related material
9.) In a relaxed & calm manner, do whatever I want until the markets open

Before implementing this routine, some days I would watch TV, some days I would surf the net, play a game, study, read a book, whatever…with really no rhyme or even a passing thought given to how it would affect my mood and mental state leading up to the market’s open. As a result, some days I would find myself late to work and scrambling to get everything set up and ready for the trading day (very sad given that I work from home!); This rushed & non-prepared state was hardly very conducive to consistent trading profitability.

So when I had a bad day it was nearly impossible to truly determine the cause. Was I unlucky, making bad decisions due to an inability to adapt to the current market situations, or was I in a bad mental state due to my non-routine rushedness that handicapped me before the market even opened?

Like a scientist trying to perform an experiement with someone constantly changing the variables being measured, it was impossible to tell. So I set about making a goal of holding one variable as constant as possible, my pre-market preparedness & mental state. With that variable controlled for, I then began the long process of uncovering the wealth of untapped data stored in my historical trading log via better statistical analysis. Both of which I’ll be going over in more in depth in the days & weeks to come.

So some questions to ask:

Do you have a consciously derived morning routine?
If so, does it facilitate or detract from a proper trading mindset?
Does it take into account your unique personality characteristics & demands?
Do you ever feel rushed or in a hurry prior to market open as if being late to class?

Feel free to share your thoughts on what you have found to help you prepare for each trading day.

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11-16-2006 Trade Review of the Day

Opening Gap Fade Play

I’m not one who puts a whole lot of emphasis on morning gap plays just for the sake of morning gap plays. I’m looking for 3+ Convergence and if I can find that in conjunction with an exhaustion gap then all the better. This morning was just such an occurence.

After being up decisively over the past 2 days, the market was becoming overdue for a 60-minute correction to some degree. That being said, the ER2 was poised for a possible 15-minute negative price divergence (PD-) going into this morning so I was a little bit cautious.

After this morning’s employment numbers, the ER2 ran higher a full 5 points in the pre-market without much of any kind of meaningful pullback in the interim. This is just the kind of extended move after an already extended market that is ripe for a likely morning gap fill.

The first thing I noticed right at the open was the 610-tick chart that was starting to roll over both in price & in momentum (as measured by the TRIX). The next thing I noticed was the Market Delta chart (not shown) which was clearly showing a great many trades taking place at the bid versus the offer, further indicating downward pressure.

Once the low of the 610-tick reversal bar was broken, I didn’t see any support until the 795.50 area shown. So I went short at 797.10 with a limit buy to cover order open at 795.80, 3 ticks above my target. Sometimes here I would put the cover order at 795.60 or even 795.50, but one of my biggest priorities of every day is to make the first trade a winner as I’ve found that doing so really puts me in a better mindset when going forward to hit my net goal for the trading day. So any trades I make before 10:00 I tend to play much more conservatively for this very reason.

Well a few seconds later I was out with a 1.3 point profit and within another 5 minutes I had hit my target for the day. Gotta love days like today when you only have to work less than 10-minutes!

11-16-2006 Trade Results & Analysis

Mission Accomplished. This really is a special day for me. It is something I’ve been building up to since I started trading full time 16 months ago. I now have met the benchmark outlined in my plan such that I can switch my trading from mostly Simulated & partly Live to mostly Live & partly simulated.

I expect to learn much about myself as I begin this new leg of my trading journey. Up till now I have only had to deal with the emotions of live trading on a limited basis and I am sure that there will definitely be an adjustment period as I settle into a new rythm, or more accurately, settle into my old rythm in a new environment.

So now my numbers all get reset back to 0 as I attempt to go 10/10 or 16/20 again in order to be able to move up another notch. But being that this is my first time actually being in this situation, I’ll be happy if I can just maintain where I am at for a little while instead of getting knocked back down into Sim-mode again. This would happen if I lose 7 net R-Units. Until now I haven’t had to worry about going backwards as I only had one way that I could go.

Consecutive Days Hitting Net Daily Goal: 1
# Days Hitting Goal out of Last 20 (with goal of 16/20) : 16
Total PnL over past 20 Days: 13.70 R-Units