Archive for November, 2006

11-21-2006 Trade Review of the Day

No Follow Through on Good Setups

These were the first 2 trades that I made this morning. Both of them followed pretty much the same M.O.

TRIX Divergence (TXD+)
Trendline Break (TL+)
NYSE-TICK hook (TCKH+)

And both of them turned profitable soon after entry. Either I set unreasonable profit targets given the likely whippy nature of today’s trading day or else thease were just as couple of those unavoidable losses.

On the first trade I had my target a couple ticks below the double bottom extension at 793.80. I think maybe 1 contract was traded at the price before it reversed and took out my stop.

So I tried again at 9:44 and almost immediately was up 1 ER2 point. Now here I totally should have exited the trade when the negative TRIX Divergence reared its head instead of waiting for price to 791.70 low. Honestly, I just missed it as I was paying more attention to the 2-minute chart on this trade.

But the key here was that both of these losses were pretty small. So much so that it only took 1 trade to get me out of the hole. Time and time again, my results have shown that if I can just suck up my pride and take these little hits before they get out of hand (EVEN IF I SOMETIMES SHOULDN’T) then I’ll make out ok in the long run as the good trades will eventually come my way.

11-21-2006 Trading Results & Analysis

Interesting day today. I had a couple small losses earlier this morning that occured pretty close together. The entries were wonderful but they just didn’t make it to my targets and turned over for small losses. Maybe I was just hoping to get too much out of them as instead of taking the profits sooner, I opted to ride through the first pullback and see if I couldn’t get more. Problem was that first pullback took out my stop both times :-(

Then I did catch a nice little move around 10:15 that put me back in the black but I didn’t get much else for the rest of the day. I was at lunch during the 12:00 rally and though I shorted its reversal correctly, when it didn’t move my way soon enough, I closed it out at break even. This too may have been a mistake in hindsight as price then proceeded to drop another 2 points but I didn’t like the way it was chopping around up there & am satisfied with my decision.

Not sure if I’ll do much trading tomorrow. I’ll try to catch the open but then I’ve been tasked with bathing the dogs as we’re heading out of town tomorrow evening.

Consecutive Days Hitting Net Daily Goal: 1
# Days Hitting Goal out of Last 20 (with goal of 16/20) : 1/1
Total PnL over past 20 Days: +1.13 R-Units

11-20-2006 Trade Review of the Day

Gap Fill after Lack of Downward Followthrough

Since I only made 1 trade today, I thought I’d consolidate tonight’s posts. This was definitely the quickest I have ever hit my Net Daily Goal as I was in and out within a few minutes after the market opened.

This morning we saw a gap down on the Russel 2000 Futures by about 2 ER2 points. At this point I was actually thinking that if the 15 minute bar could close lower then we’d be in for a bearish looking day. But the NYSE-TICK was acting surprisingly resiliant despite an early flurry of selling. Sure it was decreasing, but it was still in positive territory.

Then came a beautiful 55-tick TRIX Divergence (TXD+) almost completely concurrently with a Positive Trendline cross (TL+). Those 2 things combined with the non-negative TICK was enough for me to test the waters so I went long at 789.00.

A few minutes later I closed out the position achieving my N.D.G. at the pre-market price-pivot. Its hard not to feel a little bit guilty after morning’s like this morning, but then I come to my senses because for every day like today I know that there will likely be a long trendless drudgery of a day ahead so I’d better enjoy these gifts when I can.

Biofeedback Machine for Traders

I just finished reading Brett Steenbarger’s book

The Psychology of Traing

And can honestly say that it was hands down the best book on trading psychology that I have ever read. In fact, when I was about half way through the book I couldn’t I went on ahead and placed an order with Amazon for his most recent book:

Enhancing Trader Performance

I’ve taken pages worth of notes and will be sharing some of the highlights of what I took from the book in upcoming posts. But I wanted to go ahead and share with you now one messsage that I really took to heart. Basically, it is the message that we all have multiple personalities to some extent that crop up during different times of the day, trade, etc; Depending on a lifetime worth of learning & habituation. Thus:

The Person Who Entered a Trade is Often not the Same Person that Exits a Trade

We usually like to think that we ARE one way or another. We are kind, intelligent, in control, yadda yadda yadda. And we are…at least some of the time. We also like to think that we ARE NOT ignorant, impulsive, closed minded, fearful. However, we all experience bouts of such feelings at one time or another in our lives/trading and we will usually rationalize it away saying something like “That’s not like me”…and we’d be right.

That most likely very well isn’t who you are in total, but it is a sub-personality that exists, often completely unnoticed & unchallenged, within the grander composite that makes up what we think of as our self. And when it rears its ugly head, it usually doesn’t leave much room for any of the other parts of you that we typically like to associate ourselves with. These different parts, personalities, whatever you want to call them, each have their distinct characteristics, triggers, & real estate within your brain.

So while we may have entered a trade in a perfectly healthy mindset, little are we aware that there is a timebomb up ahead in the market that’s going to hit one of our triggers for Angry-Impulsive-Gambler Trader. Once the transition is complete, when that switch flips, the resulting trades have the potential to be devastating to our trading accounts.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that none of these transitions happen in a vacuum. The bodily changes themselves that accompany these mood shifts (heart pounding, hands sweating, intrusive thoughts racing) are not necessarily bad as they are likely occuring in concurrence with significant market events (breakouts or turning points). If used properly, we can learn to use our own emotional & physical reactions much as we would a broader market sentiment indicator (ie: Do the oposite of what the general public is doing, & fade the extremes).

The other good news is that with the proper equipment we can learn to identify these sensations as they occur, take what useful information may be conveyed in them, and shift or remain in a more productive trading mindset.

Enter the Biofeedback Machine. After reading Brett’s book I found myself in the market to purchase some sort of biofeedback machine as I have long since noticed that my losses tend to clump together indicating a loss of emotional control. After doing some research and speaking with Brett, I found out that there are basically 2 major types of feeback machines out there. Ones that track your heartrate & ones that track the conductance (sweat) in your fingers.

From there I was able to start doing some comparisons of different products that are out on the market.

Freeze Framer 2.0 markets its product specifically for traders and looks like a rather comprehensive program for measuring one’s heartrate. Its the most expensive of the ones I found weighing in at around $300

ThoughtStream is an interesting product focusing exclusively on the Galvonic Skin Response (finger sweat) arena. Like Freeze Framer, it comes with games and tutorials to help guide you through the process of becoming more in control of your phsyical responses to stress. It comes in as the cheapest at $129.

The problem I ran accross was that I wanted both Heartrate & GSR monitoring. Enter Journey to Wild Divine. If you can get past the name & dig a little deeper, it seems to be a great compromise.

It was originally designed to help meditators to become more in control of their physical responses. It is designed as a computer game whereby you have to master varying degrees of heartrate & skin response levels in order to control the game. But apparently you can also just hook up to the machine outside of the game and have it output your GSR & Heartrate readings.

Its listed on the Wild Divine website for $160, but if you Click Here or the picture below, you can get it from Amazon for $148.



The only downside I saw with Wild Divine is that apparently you need to purchase a separate

Graphing Program

from their website if you want to be able to track the detailed stats of your progress over time, but even with that cost ($40), it is still cheaper than getting the Freeze Framer & ThoughtStream separately.

I went on ahead and ordered the Hardware & Game from Amazon yesterday. Once it comes in, I’ll then see whether or not the additional graphing software will be necessary. I’ll let you know what I think of it once it arrives. But I have a feeling that this will likely be the most useful stock market indicator I have ever purchased.

Trading Review for Week Ending 11-17-2006

Good news first, I made absolutely 0 1-factor daytrades which have historically been my achilles heel.

The problem is that my 3-factor trades’ profitability dropped from 80%+ to 66%. Its nothing to worry about too much as this is still well within the paremters of profitability but is definitely something to keep an eye on in the weeks to come.

At first the absense of any trades after 11:15 am was a little eyebrow-raising but after going back and looking at my trades the reason became much clearer. Every day this past week except for Friday I managed to either hit my Net Daily Goal or get stopped out prior to 11:15. And on Friday, the action in the afternoon was hardly anything to get excited about. So all this big hole really means is that I’m sticking to my trading plan and hitting my target in even less time than I usually do. Hardly a development to be discouraged.

So this week I need to

1.) Make sure that I continue to focus on making 66%+ 3-factor trades with 0 1-factor trades
2.) Not shy away from early morning trades, but also not close myself off to afternoon opportunities when things aren’t going my way like this past Wednesday
3.) Really keep on top of my emotions this week as I start my first full week of 100% live trading. If Friday is any indication, then I still have some fear & conservatism to overcome in my trading
4.) Be a little extra careful this week as the volume is sure to be lighter than normal heading up to Thanksgiving which means that prices will likely be much less volatile with occasional flury of activity as big players will have much more influence

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