Archive for October, 2006

10-25-2006 Trade Review of the Day

Fed Day Breakdown

This was a beauty of a setup that occured after the requisite gyrations that occur after every fed announcement. Price initially shot up on the news, but couldn’t hold and crashed back down where it stalled for a little bit, right at the trendline before rolling over and collapsing for another 4.5 points.

Price halted at the 610-tick fractal and then took off higher for the rest of the day.

OK, so the TRIX had already rolled over on the 610-tick chart and it had stalled at the rising trendline. From here prices could either reverse and go back up or collapse and go down to complete the fractal.

Wel the big tip0ff came in the form of the 2-minute volume. When prices tried to rally off of the trendline, the up-volume was only 1/2 of the previous bar. This wasn’t the entry signal but when the low of the bar that closed below the trendline was taken out, all systems were a go.

Price dropped so quick that I didn’t have time to type in a new price in the order window. Instead I was scrambling in the Ninja Trader dome trying to click on the lowest price and adjust my target that way. 764.10-ish was what I wanted to set it to, but I got taken out of the play at 765.10 prematurely.

But regardless it was the type of solid, high probability play that doesn’t come around too often.
 
 

10-25-2006 Trading Results & Analysis


 
 
I hit my target again today. Up until the Fed Annoucement, I feel like I was trading really well. I was picking my spots carefully and was half way to my target. But when the volatility picked up after the announcement it is almost as if all reason went out the window. I made 2 consecutive horrible trades in a row resulting in 2 full stops. I guess I just got too caught up in the excitedment of the moment and shut my brain off for a few minutes…and that’s all it took to put me 1.50 R-Units in the hole.

But luckily my reason returned in time to take advantage of the best play of the day (See today’s Review above). That play should have been enough to recoup all my losses and reach my goal for the day, but price dropped quicker than I could adjust my exit price and I got taken out of the play prematurely.

Instead of jumping back in, I opted to be patient and wait for the next play to set up and come to me. It took another hour, but I eventually did reach my goal.
 
 

Econoday for the Economic Picture

Just found this link to Econoday (screenshot below) which is much better than the site I had been using to keep on top of the daily economic numbers & forecasts. Its a free site that gives you the synopsis of what is going on each day and which reports are going to be released.

Also, if you click on each report, it’ll give you the market consensus and consensus range for what the numbers are expected to be. It only takes 2 seconds in the morning to glance at and can really give you a heads up as to when to expect spikes in market volatility.


 
 

10-24-2006 Trade Review of the Day

The Perfect Fade


Click to Enlarge

My mouth was literally salivating as I saw this play setting up. I entered my limit sell order and all I could do was wait and see if price would trigger it before reversing. To my delight, I got filled and within seconds had reached my Net Daily Goal for the day.

This would have been a play that I would have wanted to take regardless of the Flash Formation Fractal, but its presence just helped me target my entry even better.

There is this perception out there that fading a stock or security is much more risky than playing a breakout or pullback. But this simply is not true. When proplerly set up, a fade can offer you a high reward, low risk opportunity that you simply can’t get via any other method.

The reason for this is because you are entering precisely in the area where you are anticipating an imminent reversal. Thus, your stop can be placed very close to your entry. The play gives you a very clear signal when it is wrong, namely, that price doesn’t reverse soon and you can get out with a small loss. But when it works, the rewards can be much greater because you have entered BEFORE everyone else and can exit with a profit BEFORE they do as well.

Isn’t that the name of the game?
 
 

10-24-2006 Trading Results & Analysis


 
 
Today was an awesome day. After the requisite bad trade between 9:30-10:00, I then went 7 for 7 and hit my daily goal by lunchtime. Also, in anticipation of harder times during the first 1/2 hour, I cut my lot size in half so the loss wasn’t as bad as it could have been.

I have to say that these Flash Formation Fractals are a godsend. Today I successfully used them for targeting exits, for getting in early on fades…and the results really couldn’t have been much better. The key is to know when to be content going for 2-ticks and when to know when you can push it a little farther. Today’s review of the day highlights the epitome of a perfect fade made even more so by the FFF-.