Not Ready to Fill the Gap Yet
Normally, I’d be looking for a gap fill type of rally after a gap like the one this morning. But the gap this morning took out a pretty major trendline on the 15 & 60-minute charts. this was the first sign of serious weakness. The second was when price failed to break higher from the pre-market range.
After it broke down, i drew the FFF- lines and saw that we were still a great distance away from completing the second leg of the downward movement. The very low up-volume on the consolidation lent even more credence to my belief that we were in for some more downward movement.
I entered on the false pivot circled at 776.30. Though it initially moved against me, I wasn’t too much worried as A.) there still was no pickup in volume & B.) I had my stop above a nice resistance level 1.50 points away. Within the blink of an eye price collapsed and I exited a couple minutes after entry with a 1-point profit.
This was a very conservative exit as it was almost a full point away from my FFF Target Line but after last week’s review of all of the trades I have made this year I have noticed that I am a consistent loser between 9:30-10:00am E.S.T. With this knowledge I am trying to make a conscious effort to be more conservative (both in position size and in profit taking) during the times that I have performed the worst and be more aggressive during those times when I historically perform the best.
Thus, if I can secure ANY profit during times when I historically lose money, that will make my job all that much easier when my most profitable trading times roll around. Its been a small change, but seems to be having a signficant impact on my results this past week. Its something we should all take a close look at now and then. It only takes a second to calculate but can save us a lot of grief by keeping us out of losing trades during the times when the our style (psychological or system-related) are not best in-tune with the market.