Archive for October 23rd, 2006

Flash Formation Fractals

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Flash Formation Fractals

Flash Formation Fractals are used to project possible points where a correction is likely to take place. Note, they do not predict trend reversals, but merely places where a Trend Continuation Thrust is likely to run out of steam. This could result in a trend reversal, a range, or a counter-trend consolidation.

There are 3 parts of a FFF. The first leg is the initial thrust down of a new trend. In the new downtrend shown, it is drawn vertically from the price high to the lowest price achieved during this initial thrust.

The next line is a diagonal line connecting the end of the first line to the high reached during the consolidation.

The final line is another vertical line connected to the end of the the diagonal. It is the same length as the first line.

The price shown at the end of this line marks the “Target Area” where you can look for a likely correction. These are marked by the dotted blue lines T1 & T2 on the chart.

I am new to FFFs and as there is not a lot of info out there on their usage, it’ll take some time to get the hang of them fully but I’d recommend only taking the first 1 or 2 at the beginning of a trend. After that, there will likely not be enough steam to cause price to reach the targets projected.

If you catch the move early enough, you can also draw what I have dubbed a FFF2 line from the high of H1 to the low of the second consolidation L2…Then connect this with the high of the the second consolidation H3…and draw the third arrow from there.

This is a more aggressive line versus just drawing the single FFF1 lines based off of each subsequent pivot, but if you are scaling out of a position, it might be worth looking into. For all I know I could be interpreting the whole thing incorrectly anyway but I used this method VERY successfully today in going for much greater targets than I usually do. I certainly wouldn’t have hit my Net Daily Goal without them today, and I look forward to continuing to put them to the test going forward.

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10-23-2006 Trading Results & Analysis


 
 
Well after my little epiphany over the weekend, I really tried to focus on 2 things:

1.) To really focus on finding plays with 3+ Convergence
2.) Then when I find them, see if I am able to go for more than just 2-ticks (either via 2tr, or Trend plays)

I also did a PnL distribution by time of day and found the following:

* My least profitable trades are made between 9:30-10:00 am and 11:15-12:00pm E.S.T.
* My most profitable trades are made between 10:00-11:00am and 12:00-2:15pm

That is a pattern that seemed to repeat itself again today. Its almost as there is this part inside me that finds a way to sabotage the first X # of trades I make in the morning; Only then am I able to get in the right frame of mind to begin the climb out of the hole I’ve dug for myself. But today, I was able to climb out of a -2.57 R-Unit hole and reach my net daily goal of 1.20 R-Units.

In an effort to come up with better (and more profitable) targets on those plays where I have the requisite 3+ Convergence, I tried something new today. It was a strategy I picked up in last month’s issue of TradersMag called Flash Formation Fractals. I wish there was a place I could point to other than the magazine for reference, but a Google search produces 0 results in English. This is a Link to the Article, But as you can see, it’s a .pdf document in Dutch…which means Google can’t translate it.

I’ll be highlighting the basics that I gleamed from the TradersMag Article (which WAS published in english) in today’s review.
 
 

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