Archive for October 20th, 2006

Flash Formation Fractals

Flash Formation Fractals

Flash Formation Fractals are used to project possible points where a correction is likely to take place. Note, they do not predict trend reversals, but merely places where a Trend Continuation Thrust is likely to run out of steam. This could result in a trend reversal, a range, or a counter-trend consolidation.

There are 3 parts of a FFF. The first leg is the initial thrust down of a new trend. In the new downtrend shown, it is drawn vertically from the price high to the lowest price achieved during this initial thrust.

The next line is a diagonal line connecting the end of the first line to the high reached during the consolidation.

The final line is another vertical line connected to the end of the the diagonal. It is the same length as the first line.

The price shown at the end of this line marks the “Target Area” where you can look for a likely correction. These are marked by the dotted blue lines T1 & T2 on the chart.

I am new to FFFs and as there is not a lot of info out there on their usage, it’ll take some time to get the hang of them fully but I’d recommend only taking the first 1 or 2 at the beginning of a trend. After that, there will likely not be enough steam to cause price to reach the targets projected.

If you catch the move early enough, you can also draw what I have dubbed a FFF2 line from the high of H1 to the low of the second consolidation L2…Then connect this with the high of the the second consolidation H3…and draw the third arrow from there.

This is a more aggressive line versus just drawing the single FFF1 lines based off of each subsequent pivot, but if you are scaling out of a position, it might be worth looking into. For all I know I could be interpreting the whole thing incorrectly anyway but I used this method VERY successfully today in going for much greater targets than I usually do. I certainly wouldn’t have hit my Net Daily Goal without them today, and I look forward to continuing to put them to the test going forward.
 
 

10-20-2006 Trading Results & Analysis


 
 
Today I focused purely on Sim Trading again as I adjust to incorporating the Market Delta info into my trades. I feel like I am getting better with it. Initially, I found myself over-emphasizing the signals that I was ‘seeing” on the MD charts and just going with them without even consulting the whole other aspects of my trading methodology. It’s a problem I often face when making any system adjustments.

Today I did hit my target with my Sim Account, although I’m not sure that I should have for I made some pretty bad decisions. I don’t know why, but I find myself way too often violating my trading rules in my Sim Account in ways that I would never do in my real account. Like this morning, I went long on what I thought would be a good Fade off of the 15-minute charts (This is just another example of the kinds of risks I take with my Sim Account that I never do with my Live one).

Anyway, the play started turning against me; but instead of taking the stop (which I always do with my live account), I checked the 60-minute chart and saw that the next area of support was only a couple points away. So instead of closing out the position and re-entering in that area, I just dropped my stop & waited. Turned out that the play eventually went my way and unfortunately I was rewarded for committing a mortal trading sin.

I did discover something interesting after doing some Time-analysis of my old trades for the past year. It seems that I am very much a net loser in the trades that I take before 10:00Am and between 11:15-Noon. The latter didn’t surprise me due to the doldrums, but I was surprised at how unprofitable I was in the first 30 minutes of trading. I’ll defintely have to take that into consideration going forward.
 
 

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