Archive for October 17th, 2006

Finally Caught Up

Well it has taken me the entire day, but I finally have everything pretty much back in order. This morning I spent many hours getting all of my indicators back when TS locked up on me again and I had to shut it down. When I started to start TS back up I started getting the same ominous pre-going-to-delete-all-of-your-data indicators so I immediately pulled the plug on the whole computer as I still hadn’t saved some of my work to a non-tradestation folder.

My only hope was to try upgrading tradestation and pray that the errors would go away in the transfer process from the old release to the new. Lucky for me this seemed to do the trick and I was at least able to promptly back up all of my data! One issue solved at least.

Unfortunately, between coding, upgrading, backing up, and running a number of PC Utilities, that pretty much shot my trading day. I’ve spent the past couple of hours downgrading my blog from WordPress 2.0 to WordPress 1.5 so that I can get all of the old link structures to work again. So take note any of you who have linked to my site in the previous week, they probably won’t work anymore if they have wilytrader.com/index.php/ in them…the index.php is no longer needed for any of my links and all is well again as far as my blog is concerned.

Part of the downgrade process entailed re-posting any posts that I have written between now and when I originally upgraded (about 10 days ago). So those of you who subscribe via email are going to be receiving a slew of email posts and I do apologize. This was a one-time ordeal and I promise not to make a habit of overloading your RSS readers in the future : – P

Looks like things will be back to normal tomorrow.

Oh Man

So my wife and I get back from dinner last night, I go to check my email and the computer is locked up. I am unable to shut down normally so I do a manual reboot. Thinking everything is fine, a little while later I then go start up TradeStation and BAM ….”deleting Indicator X”….”deleting indicator y”….”deleting”, “deleting”, “deleting”…

OMG! I thought as I watched all of my indicators be deleted by TradeStation right before my eyes. Lucky for me this happened to me the very firsts week I used TS so I have gotten into a relatively frequent habit of backing everything up. Unfortunately for me, I usually back everything up on Monday nights and had yet to do so this week. Thus I lost about 10 hours worth of work that I had been doing from last week. Could have been worse, but still sucks.

On top of that, I was going through my blog stats and noticed that my click-through rate had dropped by over 70% since I “upgraded” to WordPress 2.0. Apparently any old within-site links that I have within my posts no longer work and merely bring users back to the homepage. I started to fix the problem manually but then came to my senses as I’d just have to change them all back again if I ever change my link-structure in the future. Subsequently I have decided to downgrade back down to WordPress 1.5 until a better solution can be found with WP 2.0.

This downgrade is now on my much longer list of things to do so the site may experience temporary outtages in the next day or so as I switch everything back over. I do apologize for the inconvenience but i think it has to be done.

And I never did get around to writing that post on Market Delta, but it too is on the list; But I’ll admit that presently I have other priorities that must be taken care of.

Ahhhh Technology!

10-16-2006 Trade Review of the Day

Low Volume Fade


Click to Enlarge

This was a nice, quick little price divergence & fade setup that I took today a little before 11:00am E.S.T. Price had recently broken its 610-tick chart and completed its initial thrust down. It then formed a TRIX Divergence+ which failed to produce much positive price movement but did set up a nice little Price Divergence- play.

After taking a look at the volume and seeing how little there was to accompany this upward move, I decided to try a little fade. Normally I’d just go for 2-ticks here but I thought that the R1 Pivot Level looked like a good target that price could reach so I set my orders and let the market do its job. Click on the picture above for more info.
 
 

10-16-2006 Trade Results & Analysis


 
 
This weekend I discovered the joy of Market Delta stock charts; Look 2 posts above for more info. So today I decided to change my 5-minute Candlestick chart to a 5-minute Market Delta chart instead and incorporate the extra wealth of volume information into my trading.

It is worth pointing out that most of my trades today were done in my Sim Account. As you may know I do this on practically any day that I am implementing a new strategy for I find that even the minor changes in my trading habits can seriously throw off my concentration as my brain adjusts to the new information and strives for a balance when incorporating the old with the new.

I got off to a rough start with 3 out of my first 5 trades being full stops, OUCH! One of them was a solid trade but the other 2 were just bad. I chalk them up to learning how to deal with the new Market Delta data as that’s primarily what I was spending a lot of my available attention monitoring.

Then I started to settle into a groove going 9 for 10 and recouping what I lost initially and then some. Near the end of the day however, I made some bad judgment calls and compouned the problem by not taking losses soon enough as I tried to recover from the prior loss. True to form, this caused me again to have my losses bunch together.

Altogether I finished the day right around break even. It was hard for me to properly analyze any of the trades I made today based off of the Market Delta data because I didn’t realize that in TradeStation when you refresh a window that has market delta data in it, it all gets erased! Thus, only data from the latest refresh will be available. I only realized this at the end of the day and lost all MD data relating to today’s trades. Lesson learned for sure, I won’t make that mistake again.
 
 

Best Times to Trade the FX Markets

I was reading an article in this month’s issue of SFO Magazine and wanted to make note of some key points for my own posterity. I am admittantly a novice when it comes to the Foreign Exchange market and have only recenlty become confident enough in my trading abilities to start thinking about expanding the scope of my nightly analysis to look at the charts of a few key FX Pairs.

Here is the link to the article on the SFO Mag Website.

But what I wanted to highlight was the market hours of 3 major FX Markets: Asia, USA, & Europe.

Asia: 7:00pm – 4:00am E.S.T.
Europe: 2:00am – 12:00pm E.S.T.
USA: 8:00am – 5:00pm E.S.T.

The most volume, and subsequent volatility, takes place during the times when there is overlap between these 3 major players. Those key times are:

USA & Europe overlap: 8:00am – 12:00pm E.S.T.
Europe & Asia overlap: 2:00am – 4:00am E.S.T.

Also, here is a list of the most actively traded FX pairs and their average daily volatility:

So if you work full time during the day and are interested in trying your hand at some actual day trading, then you might try testing the early morning FX markets.
 
 

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