Archive for September, 2006

9-14-2006 Trading Results & Analysis

Daily Score: N/A

Batting Average: 59.26%
Full Stop %: 14.80%
EpT: N/A
 
 
Quick post for today as I’m late for dinner. I made the above trades today via the Ninja Trader Simulator as I’m trying out a little system change and need to test it a little bit before I go live. I only made 1 live trade for today netting .45 R-Units. Sorry I didn’t have time to review the trades today, the change I’m trying to intitiate involves tracking multiple Accumulated Volume totals on the different Index contracts (NQ, ES, ER2) and I failed to make a note which ones I entered for what reason today. I’ll post more on the subject next week as I am excited about the change (taught to my by my friend Bill over at ViperSpeedTrader.com) and think it will ultimately improve my scalping results drastically.

For those of you with TradeStation, you can read a little bit about the scalping system I’m trying Here in this TradeStation Support Thread.

Review of the Day

This is one of the trades I took today as both a scalp & a trend play. After selling off all morning, there were 2 beautiful setups here. I took the first one.

If you read my poste yesterday on Wolfe Waves, this is a great example of what to look for. Market was declining, then the 5 points mapped out. I shorted at 732.30 at Point #5 as a Wolfe Wave fade and since the trend was a little exhausted I let 1/2 of my position go as a 2t scalp and kept the other half to see if it could reach the Wolfe Wave target (Not drawn here, but imagine a line drawn from point # 1 through 4…extends down to around 731. 2o)

Then at 10:35 another beautiful TRIX Dvrgnce, Dbl $TICK Hook-, & Trendline Break- setup occured…all at the same time! This was a powerful convergence of factors pointing to a lower market. And if I had stayed in, then it indeed would have easily made it to the Wolfe Wave target (And much more). But for some reason I got scared and exited at 731.60. Think my nerves got the best of me on this one, or maybe there was an ACV long signal that scared me out, but either way it was a mistake to leave without any strong evidence to contradict the short signal(s).

Just as a reminder, I got a little bit of a family reunion going on this weekend and will be off tomorrow. So have a nice weekend everyone!
 
 

9-12-2006 Trading Results & Analysis

I recently read an article in this month’s edition of Traders-Mag about Wolfe Waves. It was a very interesting read and when I saw the setup occur this morning I decided to try it out. It was my first trade of the day, and it ended up being my last too for it worked so well that with it alone I reached my Net Daily Goal.

Check it out:

Review of the Day

My explanation really can’t compare to the info in the article or on the website www.WolfeWave.com but here’s a quick synopsis for those interested in learning more. And BTW, while informative, WolfeWave.com is a front to get you to take their $3,000 training course which I know nothing about but in listening to those who do, I got the impression that its value noway near justifies its price.

The first thing to consider when looking at a potential Wolfe Wave setup is that they should only be taken in the direction of the primary trend (eg: The trend of the 1-2 timeframes higher than that of the setup itself). And it is only effective in a trending market.

With that out of the way, lets go over the 5 points to the Wave:

Basically what you are looking for is a counter-trend channel or triangle formation. In an uptrend Point # 2 would indicate the top, with Point # 1 being the point prior to the runnup. Point # 3 should be lower than Point # 1, Point # 4 should be greater than # 3 but lower than # 2, & Point # 5 should be lower than point # 3.

Point # 5 is the entry price, so to that end it is a fade. You can be more conservative and wait for some indication of a hook back up, but it will increase your downside risk. The target is found by drawing a line from Point # 1 to Point # 4 and extending it to the right.

That’s it. Enter at #5, exit at Point T and have a good day! Like I said, this is a new trade for me and it’ll take some time to learn the ins and outs of it, but its all I got for today so I thought I’d share. In my trade today, I got in at 716.90 and exited 2 minutes later at 718.30. Not a bad haul for a couple minutes.
 
 

9-11-2006 Trading Results

Wish I had better news to post today but I hit my stop limit today after 2 trades and stopped trading very early in the morning.

I missed the first hour of trading due to a doctor’s appointment and which perhaps threw me off my game a little but that is no excuse for poor judgement. In hindsight though, I should have waited for the 5-minute oversold conditions to resolve one way or another before making any trades. I got caught up in the chop that occured right at the bottom of the day’s range before prices turned back higher.

See below for one of the trades.

Review of the Day

This is the type of play that normally has very good follow through to the downside. BUT (and it is a big but), followthrough(FT) reliability decreases dramatically on this kind of a channel breakdown the more mature the trend is. Here the 5-min (or 610-tick) had been in a downward trend since market open with little FT on upside corrections.

So I attempted a scalp as prices broke down concurrently with the 55-tick TRIX & $TICK. Usually this is a powerful combo that will give me my 2 ticks. But in addition to the maturity of the trend & Oversold conditions, the other warning sign that I ignored was the width of the channel. It was not tight & controlled like I normally like to see but broadening. My plan calls for staying away from broadening channels as they usually require a stop to be placed much farther away which increases risk.

On this trade, I got in at 705.80 and went for a scalp with a stop at 706.50, but clearly this was a mistake given the circumstances. I think I just got a little too trigger-happy after a long car-ride to the Dr.s :-/ For starters, any legitimate play here would require a stop at least in the vacinity of 707.50 and there just wasn’t enough downside/profit potential to warrant such a risk.

Bottom line, I got what I manipulated my rules here to get into the trade and got what I deserved. As my next trade wasn’t much better, I hit my stop loss limit for the day and missed the ensuing rally.

Patience, Patience, Patience.
 
 

9-6-2006 Trading Results & Analysis

Daily Score: +.500

Batting Average: 75.00%
Full Stop %: 00.00%
EpT: .50
 
 
My numbers were solid today although I finished the day at only half of my net daily goal. I found myself feeling a little spooked all day due to the high Put/Call Ratio. Thus I cut off a lot of my scalps 1 tick too soon which added up throughout the day. Not sure if me being worried is a good thing or a bad thing. Obviously, it cost me a few ticks today, but there is this other part of me that says that the same kind of market awareness will help me in the long run. Only time will tell which ME is right.

I am definitely feeling much more patient than I have in weeks past, this month should be a crucially telling month for me as far as this new method of scalping goes.

Review of the Day

This play is a new setup that I tried out today that is worth analyzing. I have it labeled as “5+2ndTCKH-” on my spreadsheet (uninspiring I know, but descriptive enough to suit its purpose).

It aims to take advantage of failed Price Divergences. A price divergence is one way I identify continuation patterns. If the TRIX pulls back towards 0 but price does not, then when TRIX turns back up, this is often scalpable. But Price Divergences are much less reliable than TRIX divergences and often fail. This play is my way of trying to find a way of taking advantage of these failures, and again, only time will tell its long term resiliancy.

The 5+ part of the equation means that there must be at least 5 consecutive down bars on the TRIX, the more the better as far as this play goes. I then want the last $TICK peak to be at or near the high of its most recent range. The play is taken when price then makes a subsequent 2nd peak in the same range as the prior AND closes down. At that time, a scalp may be taken depending on the current price volatility.

In the above play, I entered right where I wanted to, but I completely got scared out of the play when the 55-tick WRB+ appeared a few bars later. This is what made me qualifiy my handling of this play as “BAD” in my notes…this exit was horrible on so many levels. The $TICK had shallowed out a little bit, but was no where near reversing; The TRIX was still very much sloping down; There was no significant Volume+ to worry about; and Price had just broken its 55-tick rising Trendline.

All these reasons mean that I should NOT have exited the trade. I think my aforementioned fear of the high P/C Ratio played a large part in my succumbing to my nerves there.

As the Summer winds down, my wife & I will be heading out of town this weekend and next. I’ll be off for sure this Friday and next. I may trade tomorrow morning, it really just depends on how soon Kimberley wants to hit the road to go see her folks. Either way, I doubt I’ll have much time to blog tomorrow. If I do, I do. If not, I’ll catch up with everyone Monday.

Good Trading!
 
 

Only a Couple Trades Today

For all practical purposes, I finished the day at break even (Up like .05 R-Unit to be exact). My first trade of the day got hit with some serious lag and my entry price was 3 ticks away from where I wanted it to be, so I scratched it for a small loss.

I’m not sure what was wrong after that but my data feed was very spotty and would freeze up entirely for minutes at a time. I called Comcast and they said that there was nothing wrong as far as my cable modem was concerned. I managed to get off a couple successful scalps when things were running smoothly. But then I lost my connection entirely.

I ended up having to reboot my machine and decided to run some some diagnostics (spyware, anti-virus, defrag, error check, etc.) A couple hours later I was up and running again and things seemed better but then after lunch TradeStation started fritzing out on me again.

I’ve learned my lesson the hard way to stay away from TS when its acting this way, and decided to take it easy and hope that whatever is wrong is on TradeStation’s end and will be better by tomorrow. I’ll tread lightly in the morning for sure.

There were a couple of great looking trend setups that occured today, but I have implemented a new rule that prohibits me from taking any trend plays unless certain criteria are met, one of them being that I have at least hit my net daily goal of .80 R-Units.

But around noon, there was a great looking 610 tick TRIX Divergence that would have been good for 3-4 ER2 points and a little before 3:00 pm there was a very nice looking 2-minute TRIX Divergence that was good for a little bit. I’d post charts but I’m late for dinner!

Hopefully I’ll have more to discuss tomorrow…