Archive for September 22nd, 2006

9-22-2006 Trading Results & Analysis


 
 
Again, I felt very not rushed today. During the times while I was waiting, I simply worked on finishing my How I Pick Stocks Page which really made time fly. When things would slow down, I would draw my trendlines, levels of support, etc; set my audio alerts to let me know when to start paying attention to the market again, and worked on actually enjoying the slow times during the market instead of fearing or dreading them.

Seemed to help.

Review of the Day

One of these days, once I finish some other sections, the list of improvements to this site is to add a list of plays that I take along with examples of a good & bad setup. Price Divergences will be one of the first on that list and this may very well be one of the ‘Good’ examples.

Price Divergences occur when after a big Price & TRIX move one way, Price & TRIX start to pull back. But while the TRIX might pull back the same distance that just previously ran up, price only corrects by a fraction. Consider this a super-loud, multi-channel broadcast of the current market momentum.

It works the best when the up move is accompanied by heavy surging volume, as in a Vol+ and the accompanying pull back has contracting volume.

There are 2 ways to enter:

1.) Draw a trendline accross the top of the pull back and enter on a close above it
2.) More conservatively you can wait for the TRIX to turn higher

Depending on the market conditions and how much convergence there is in my other indicators, I use both methods quite often. Today’s setup had it all and yielded a very quick 4-tick profit. My only regret is that I closed my position so soon and left a full 2 points profit on the table :-/
 
 

ScalpRate V2.1 Update

I have received questions from some of you in reference to an error message that Excel can give which states:

“Microsoft Excel cannot calculate a formula. There is a circular reference in an open workbook, but the references that cause it cannot be listed for you. Try editing the last formula you entered or removing it with the Undo command (Edit menu).”

I thought that this setting was workbook specific but apparently I was wrong. To fix this problem go to Tools–>Options–>Calculation tab: Put a check in the ‘Iteration’ checkbox and put a 1 where it says Maximum Iterations, Maximum change .001.

Sorry for any confusion

How I Use Trendlines

NOTE*** This post is part of an ongoing project to update my “How I Pick Stocks” page on the sidebar to the left. For every new section/update that I make to the page, I will post addition here as a post as well as amend the page itself so that all the information can be read together.
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Trendlines should be an important tool for any serious trader. Again, I have to credit Bill over at Viper Speed Trader for really helping me learn how to implement them properly though. While trendlines CAN be a great tool, they have also been responsible for the downfall of many a trader who used them improperly.

You no doubt have heard that the more times a trendline is touched, the stronger it is and more powerful a correction will be once it is broken. However, it matters greatly exactly what KIND of touches we are referring to for in trading there exists both Good and Bad touches.

Good touches occur after corrections or pullbacks (see 610-tick chart in The Perfect Trendline Break Setup below for an example).
Bad touches refer to those that occure without any meaningful pullbacks, whereby you are merely connecting the corners of a pretty one-way move. (see the last chart below for an example)

So there are right ways to use trenlines and there are wrong ways. Below are some examples of both. Study them closely and note the distinction between them, I promise it will save you money.
 
 

The Perfect Trendline Break Setup

What is important here is not just the Trendline- Break, but the convergence of forces occuring before and simultaneously with the break.

It is worth noting that the higher the timeframe chart that you are looking at, the more important, and less likely to fail, a break is. Breaks on a 55-tick chart fail all the time, as they are the first ones to move and not come back during a trend change so your stops get ripped through in no time when you are wrong. I will often note a 55-tick trendline break but, as with basically any and all indicators, will never trade based on it alone without some other confirming evidence.
 
 

When Trendlines Fail: and How to Know in Advance.

Look at all the warning signs that indicate that you should NOT expect much from this trendline- break :

1.) It is a 55-tick chart, the most likely candidate for a failure
2.) $TICK hasn’t seen negative territory in almost an hour
3.) ER2 has already dropped 12 points in last 2.5 hours
4.) Deacreasing down volume, increasing up volume
5.) 15-minute bar closed above the high of the low bar (HOLB+)
 
 

Useless Trendlines.

If you can avoid falling into the trap of chasing these kinds of trendline-breaks, then you’ll save yourself money in the long run. “Useless” may be too strong of a word here because it is Usefull to know when these trendlines are broken for change cannot happen until they are. But what I mean by useless is to that they are insufficient criteria for even thinking about entering a long trade without a whole lotta convergence.

< < TRIX Indicator      TRIN a.k.a. Arms Index>>
 
 

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