Archive for July, 2006

7-18-2006 Trading Results

Daily Score: -.167

Batting Average: 66.67%
Full Stop %: 25.00%
EpT: .92
 
 
Today was a very nice trending day with good swings in both directions. Back when I first started trading full time, it was days like today that would kill me for my method then involved picking a market direction at the beginning of the day and riding it to close and then seeing if I was right.

However, now I’m much better equiped to handle & profit greatly from nice swinging days like today. As usual, my scalp-trades were negative but my Trend plays were very profitable more than covering the losses and allowing me to hit my target for the day.

Recently, I’ve seen a very costly error start to creep into my trading. I have labeled it the 618 Retracement Fade Error. It happens when I have a pre-conceived notion that the markets should reverse between the 50% & 61.8% Retracement Level. However, instead of seeing what price & volume do around these areas, 3 times I have entered pure fade trades hoping that price will reverse there. And 3 times I have recorded a full stop.

I don’t know why I’m making these trades more all of a sudden, but I’m aware of them now and will have to be more vigilant to sit on my hands when price gets to these areas. Some very profitable trades can set up in these areas, but confirmation of a reversal is needed before blindly jumping in for when these areas are violated, the next support level usually isn’t until around a 100% retracement of the prior move.
 
 

7-17-2006 Trading Results

Daily Score: -.524

Batting Average: 71.43%
Full Stop %: 14.30%
EpT: 1.71
 
 
Talk about a nasty afternoon. One of the choppiest days I’ve seen all year after the nice smooth morning whipsaw. I was able to get a good chunk of this morning’s move and hit my trading goal for the day. I continued to trade a little bit later on too but made a couple poor trades in a row so called it a morning.

Hard to trade in a day like today. This is where excellent scalping skills come in handy, but I’d rate mine at a 4.5 to 5 out of 10 at the moment so I didn’t attempt it. Especially given that even after my mistakes, I was still above my trading goal for the day. So I wrote couple of articles instead. Check out my TRIX article below, it really goes into a lot of detail about my trading system and methodology.
 
 

How to Use the TRIX Indicator

NOTE*** This post is part of an ongoing project to update my “How I Pick Stocks” page on the sidebar to the left. For every new section/update that I make to the page, I will post addition here as a post as well as amend the page itself so that all the information can be read together.
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Next to Price & Volume, the TRIX Indicator is the primary indicator that I rely upon in my trading. Instead of spending my time writing about what exactly the TRIX is, I’m going to focus more on how I use it. For those of you who are interested in getting a little more info about it, take a look at this Investopedia.com Article About TRIX.

If you’ve been following this blog for any period of time, you have no doubted seen the Green & Red indicator that accompanies practically all of my charts, that is a version of the TRIX that my friend Bill over at ViperSpeedTrader put together for me. As such, it is not at my discretion to give it to others. However, if you have eSignal or TradeStation then you can easily formulate a rough version that does pretty much the same thing as mine with the defaults that come with the programs.

To find out how to add your own version with TradeStation, Click Here

By far where the TRIX earns its weight in gold is by spotting divergences. The two kinds of divergences that I look for are TRIX Divergences and Price Divergences.

TRIX Divergences

TRIX Divergences occur when price is increasing and makes and equal or higher high while the TRIX makes a lower high and then rolls over (& vice-versa when prices are falling). An example of a TRIX Divergence can be found in my 5-22-06 Futures Play of the Day post where a very nice positive divergence occurs around 10:55AM as the markets declined to a lower low while the TRIX mapped out a higher lower before turning positive.

One important note about TRIX divergences is that they are more reliable when the second TRIX hook occurs outside of the overbought/oversold regions. If a divergence occurs beyond the OB/OS regions I may enter for a quick scalp but I will be much more hesitant in staying for very long or betting on a reversal.

TRIX Divergences on higher timeframes are where I catch some of my biggest and most powerful moves. That being said they are not infallible and, as always, careful money management guidelines must be adhered to. Divergences that occur on the 55-tick chart often fail and are easily the most unreliable kinds to take. I will usually take them only for a quick scalp & even then only with confirmation from some other source.
 
 

Price Divergences

 
 

This is a perfect example of a price divergence from a few days back on July 11th. This is a 610-tick chart and what you’ll notice is that after the huge advance marked #1, you see a decending flag correction marked at 2. Now look at the TRIX. On move #1 the TRIX went from 0 to +6 and price moved +7 points. Then the TRIX reverted and went from +6 to 0 only this time price only corrected -2 points. Which way is the momentum going?

In this situation, I would do 2 things. 1st, I would draw 2 trendlines outlining the border of the declining channel and look for a close above it & subsequent break out above that closing bar. I would also wait for the TRIX to change color from red to green. They would likely occur at the same time but in this situation, where the momentum is so undeniably going to push this market higher, I would get on at whichever one of those 2 things happend first. This is a trade I would take 100% of the time as it has a huge + E.V.

One note about price divergences is that they work best after prices have come from OB/OS conditions and are retracing. To gauge the momentum using this method is simple, merely mark off equal corrective moves on the TRIX and see whether price moved more when the TRIX went from say 0 to 4 or whether or moved more when the TRIX declined from 4 to 0. This is how you can keep your finger on the pulse of the market and be alerted to possible turning points ahead of the majority.

Based solely on this information alone, you should be able to trade profitably. Proper utilization of the TRIX in conjunction with the price & volume techniques I had been using is what turned my equity curve around.

A quick warning when about 55-tick TRIX divergences. One reason why they often fail is that you may see a wave formation that maps out what looks like a single or even double TRIX divergence on the 55-tick chart but on closer look what is really happening is that a Price Divergence is occuring on a higher timeframe (610-tick or 5-minute for example). This kind of false divergence happens frequently and this is when proper volume analysis can really come in handy.

Volume can help highlight when a divergence is more likely to be real and when it is more likely to fail and simply trace out a consolidation on a higher timeframe. When in doubt stay out and merely observe. Or for you compulsive gamblers out there who must be in the trade, I emplore you to use a tighter stop.

Basically, I use the TRIX as a momentum oscillator not unlike RSI, MACD, or the like. I use the TRIX instead because I personally find that it operates much smoother and a little faster than the others. While, I’ll admit that they all do tend to move together and you can trade just as effectively with any of them (I know because I’ve tried them all), I have just found that the TRIX works best for me personally but I encourage you to try them all and find the ONE that fits you best. With emphasis on “One” because that is all you need. I’ve seen many traders who use all of them to look for confirmation & re-confirmation. All this does is to make you second-guess yourself to the point of rendering any benefit which may have been derived from the indicator in the first place useless.

When day trading and scalping I use the 55-tick charts quite frequently. One rule I have is to never take a trade in the oposite direction of an overbought or oversold TRIX. What does this mean exacly? It means that if the 55-tick TRIX is in an overbought condition, I will not go long. If the conditions are right I may very well short when the price & TRIX hook down, but I will not go long (& Vice-versa when it is oversold).

One thing that is important to understand about the TRIX is that the Overbought & Oversold regions vary by security & timeframe. So what I do is have 2 horizontal lines that I draw on each of the TRIX charts. Each marks off the OB / OS areas respectively. I try to position these such that about 80% of the TRIX movement oscillates between the lines with 10% above & 10% below. For the Russell 2000 e-mini (ER2), I use +/- 1.50 on the 55-tick charts, +/- 4.00 on the 610-tick & 5-minute charts, +/- 12.00 on the 15-minute chart & +/- 20 on the 60-minute chart. This is my primary trading vehicle and requires adjustment for each market/security that is traded but gives you an idea of how I gauge the regions.

Another way I use the TRIX is in conjunction with multiple-timeframe analysis. For example, if the TRIX is heading down on the 5, 15, & 60 minute charts, then I will be more inclined to treat any positive hooks in the 55-tick TRIX with extreme caution.

< < Color Coded Volume      Trendlines>>
 
 

How to add TRIX Indicator to TradeStation

I use TradeStation & so here’s how to set up your own version of the TRIX Indicator (Note: This is the very version that I used until recently)

First, if you don’t have it included with your TradeStation indicators already, download TRIX.eld file here & and install it into your indicators folder.

Next add the indicator to a chart. Once on a chart, double-click the indicator to pull up the format screen. Go the “Inputs” tab at the top and change them to match the picture below. Then do the same for the “Style” tab (Note, that you want the “Type” set to “Point”).


Click To Enlarge

Then what you’ll want to do is add 2 additional lines to complete the Triple Exponential TRIX but this time you just want a standard line indicator with the following options.


Click To Enlarge

Note that one of these lines should have a Length = 8 and another should have Length = 9.

Then you will need to drag them together so that they are on the same Axis. The finished indicator should look something like This:

The best thing to then do is to right click on the window and “Save Analysis Group” so that you won’t have to go through this whole process with each chart, you can then simply instead “Insert Analysis Group” and be done with it.

Hope this Helps
 
 

It just happened again!

For those of you who read my Futures Play of the Day post from 2 days ago, I hope you were paying attention today!

If you pull up a 5-minute chart of the ER2 (Click Here if you don’t have access to your own charting platform & would like to see the chart)…Look at the price action at 10:00 AM exchange time. Prices are drifting higher in a tight consolidation on lower volume.

Simply draw a trendline at the bottom of that channel and at 10:00 the break comes followed by a 5 point drop over the next 10 minutes.

Also, if you can pull up a 2-minute chart you will see the exact same setup occur at 10:16 (Exchange Time = 11:16 E.S.T.) with a minor retracement on low volume followed by a downward break of the channel and another 3 point drop.

I am now done for the day as the wife and I are heading out for a couple hours. I won’t be posting my results today in detailed form as I don’t have time right now. In short though I had a good day going 16/19 trades and very much a positive day.

I may or may not make any adjustments to my Swing Trades this weekend, I’ll have to wait and see how everything looks after putting in some further research-time. I may just let the 3 trades stay as they are and give them a chance to hit their repsective targets before selecting any new picks.

Have a nice weekend!
 
 

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