2006 July 20 | WilyTrader.com – Stock Picks

Archive for July 20th, 2006

7-20-2006 Futures Play of the Day

July 20th, 2006

Jason

At around 9:40AM this morning E.S.T. we had a beautiful shorting setup in the ER2.

The markets had gapped up & I was looking for a possible gap fill. The 55-tick chart formed a very nice Head & Shoulders pattern with a multiple TRIX Divergence.

The Volume on the 2-minute chart was drying up significantly as price rallied and then the reversal happened. Accompanied by a TRIX Hook to the downside right at the Overbought area.

This breakdown coincided with a break of the H&S neckline & a Vol- reading.

It was truly a thing of beauty. One way you could have managed it upon shorting would have been to wait for a close of a 2-minute candle above the high of the low bar. You can’t see it from this chart, but that would have taken you from 708.50 to 701 for a $750 gain per contract in just over 30-minutes worth of work. And what a coincidence, that would be right in the neighborhood of the gap fill.

Hapy Trading!

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7-20-2006 Trading Results

July 20th, 2006

Jason

Daily Score: -.333

Batting Average: 61.54%
Full Stop %: 30.80%
EpT: 1.00

Overall, I feel as if I traded well today. I implemented the changes that from yesterday and feel as if I was much more patient overall. However, my last 2 trades of the day were very impulsive and after analyzing them, I honestly can’t find 2 good reasons for entering them :-/

On such strong trending days like today it is best to just keep shorting rallies until you get abowerful & definitive reversal signal on the 15 or 60-minute charts. Such a signal never came today. But I still found myself having trading 8 out of 13 trades to the LONG side! That shows my counter-trend bias which I grapple with daily. Were it not for those last 2 trades of the day, I would have been profitable counter-trend trading too.

The breakdown from this morning was a beautiful trade though which I’ll highlight in a few minutes when I post the Trade of the Day.

As I’ve finally decided to stop fighting my tendency to be a trend-trader versus a pure scalper, I’m going to need to make some adjustments to the Daily Score paremeters so that I am better able to use it when analyzing my performance. Because in trend trading, my batting average is lower than in scalping, which has really been causing it to be much lower than normal.

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1 Comment »

7-20-2006 Trading Results

July 20th, 2006

Jason

Daily Score: -.333

Batting Average: 61.54%
Full Stop %: 30.80%
EpT: 1.00

Overall, I feel as if I traded well today. I implemented the changes that from yesterday and feel as if I was much more patient overall. However, my last 2 trades of the day were very impulsive and after analyzing them, I honestly can’t find 2 good reasons for entering them :-/

On such strong trending days like today it is best to just keep shorting rallies until you get abowerful & definitive reversal signal on the 15 or 60-minute charts. Such a signal never came today. But I still found myself having trading 8 out of 13 trades to the LONG side! That shows my counter-trend bias which I grapple with daily. Were it not for those last 2 trades of the day, I would have been profitable counter-trend trading too.

The breakdown from this morning was a beautiful trade though which I’ll highlight in a few minutes when I post the Trade of the Day.

As I’ve finally decided to stop fighting my tendency to be a trend-trader versus a pure scalper, I’m going to need to make some adjustments to the Daily Score paremeters so that I am better able to use it when analyzing my performance. Because in trend trading, my batting average is lower than in scalping, which has really been causing it to be much lower than normal.