Archive for May 23rd, 2006

5-23-06 Scalp Trading Results

Well today was one of my best days in scalping ever. I really think that this method of trade-analysis is starting to pay off already. My win rate was at 70% for the first time on a closing-day basis. It had been hovering around 60% until now.

I didn’t quite reach my goal of having more winning trades than BAD+OK trades combined but I still fared very well, especially in the areas I wanted to focus on today. With a little extra concentration, I was able to seriously reduce the frequency & potency of TRIX OB/OS, & Counter-trend errors. I still made a few, but no where near as many as I did yesterday and I was able to recognize them early enough and minimize their damage. Pre-conceived notion errors still cost me quite a bit on average & I will need to continue to be persistent in keeping my mind fluid, open, and non-attached to market direction.

I will not be trading tomorrow, but when I come back on Thursday, I will again have the goal of having more Good than BAD+OK and will continue to focus on watching that I don’t have any Preconceived Notions, that I almost exclusively take with-trend plays, & that I am very careful about plays when the TRIX is OB/OS.

But my primary focus will be on trying to be more vigilant in recognizing when ranges are forming on the 55 & 610-tick charts and making sure that I don’t get suckered into entering on breakouts.

If I can eliminate these 4 errors alone, it seems as if I’ll be able to turn this scalping around.

Here is a link to the Full ScalpRate.xls Download.

5-23-06 Scalp Trading Results

Well today was one of my best days in scalping ever. I really think that this method of trade-analysis is starting to pay off already. My win rate was at 70% for the first time on a closing-day basis. It had been hovering around 60% until now.

I didn’t quite reach my goal of having more winning trades than BAD+OK trades combined but I still fared very well, especially in the areas I wanted to focus on today. With a little extra concentration, I was able to seriously reduce the frequency & potency of TRIX OB/OS, & Counter-trend errors. I still made a few, but no where near as many as I did yesterday and I was able to recognize them early enough and minimize their damage. Pre-conceived notion errors still cost me quite a bit on average & I will need to continue to be persistent in keeping my mind fluid, open, and non-attached to market direction.

I will not be trading tomorrow, but when I come back on Thursday, I will again have the goal of having more Good than BAD+OK and will continue to focus on watching that I don’t have any Preconceived Notions, that I almost exclusively take with-trend plays, & that I am very careful about plays when the TRIX is OB/OS.

But my primary focus will be on trying to be more vigilant in recognizing when ranges are forming on the 55 & 610-tick charts and making sure that I don’t get suckered into entering on breakouts.

If I can eliminate these 4 errors alone, it seems as if I’ll be able to turn this scalping around.

Here is a link to the Full ScalpRate.xls Download.

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5-22-06 Futures Play of the Day

I’ve been wanting to start a Play of the Day section on here for quite some time. As much as I’ve got going on, who knows if I’ll keep it up or not, but I wanted to post this play that I saw develop yesterday in the Russel 2000.

For trend trading I mainly use the 610 Tick chart, but I keep an eye on the 5, 15, & 60 minute charts for confirmation since I know many people use these exclusively. I also follow the minute charts so that I can pick up on any pertinent volume patterns. So here’s what I saw:

The ER2 had been falling all morning and at 10:15 exchange time had a nice little Wide Range Bar (WRB-) blowoff with some pretty good volume hinting at further downward pressure..

We then saw 3 green 5-minute consolidation candles with decreasing volume again signaling further downside. We then see a nice 610-tick reversal setup around 10:26. All systems look GO BEARS…but wait! This 610t candle is completely engulfed on the next bar; The first chink in the bear armor appears. But be careful that you don’t go long here expecting a trend continuation…this is a scalp setup at best.

We then see some nice follow-through on the 5minute chart with a 4th green candle with very nice volume. Things are looking better for the bulls, but at this point they need a break, so lets see what happens next….

The bears fight back on both the 5 minute and 610t charts, but the volume’s not anywhere close to that of that last green bar…hmmmm. 3 reds, then 4…here we go, this 4th red candle finally has some volume on it as price breaks to new lows. But before you can bat an eye at 10:53 the Bulls get their second wind and push back with all their might closing that 4th red candle green with huge volume!

And as if that weren’t enough to get you salivating, at 10:56 on the 610t chart as the price prings a hammer, the TRIX starts to turn higher…a divergence is forming on both the 5-minute & 610 charts! Coupled with the price & volume patterns, all systems are go on a breakout above this 610t hammer as it would also correspond to a breakout above the prior 5-minute hammer with explosive volume.

They don’t get any prettier than this and I was just lucky that I hadn’t taken off to go to lunch early like I had planned. It was a quick-easy 20 ticks for me, & I could have gotten 40, but I wussed out around the 711 consolidation.

It takes patience, but success really can be as simple as sitting in front of your computer waiting for this setup to occur. Unfortunately, our thoughts and emotions find ways of sabotaging us the other 95% of the time. Trading is simple, its that 95% of the time that’s tough.

5-22-06 Scalping Results

Well today sure was better than yesterday on a number of levels. On the gross level, I had more good trades than bad and secondly, I was able to reduce the number of instances where I entered a trade Impatiently or under Preconceived Notions. Which, as you recall were my most frequent and costliest errors yesterday.

I’ve also added a row of very useful calculations underneath each of the error columns. The first row is the number of times that a particular error was made during the trading day. The second row is the total number of Ticks that each particular error cost me. A note here that many of the trades had multiple errors associated with them and so are subsequently counted multiple times. The third row is the average loss rate for each particular error that occured (or simply Row 2 divided by Row 1) [ The numbers in rows 2 & 3 are in 10ths so a reading of -2.5 = a loss of -25 ticks ]

What these rows enable me to do is better visualize the impact of the various trading demons that I’m fighting on a daily basis. I wish there were room to show the entire spreadsheet so that you could see the individual columns along with my entry criteria and post-trade commentary on each one. So I’ll post a link to the full spreadsheet at the end of the post.

Bottom line however, is that while I was able to reduce the quantity of the # of Preconceived Notion & Impulsive plays, the effects of their few occurences were strongly felt with an average of over 10 ticks per trade. So today I will continue to try and be vigilant about these kinds of errors.

That being said, the primary brunt of my concentration will today be focused more soundly on reducing the number of times that I enter/chase breakouts without adequate confirmation as well as the number of plays where I enter a trade when the TRIX is Overbought or Oversold. The TRIX OB/OS mistake is simply due to a lack of concentration and getting caught up in the moment and failing to check the indicator. While it may sometimes be OK to enter a trade when it is OB/OS, conditions must be perfect and often the trade should have a much smaller target and room for error. Yesterday though, I simply kept forgetting to even look at the indicator, or when I did, it was after the fact and often too late for price can reverse very quickly after a big run-up.

That will be my goal for today, as well as having more GOOD trades than BAD+OK trades.

As a side note, I cought some nice trend plays yesterday and they were net profitable, it just seems to be this scalping that I am having the most difficult time with. However, I think that this spreadsheet and journal is just what I need to diagnose & cure that which ails my trading most.

As promised, you can Download Here the full version of the ScalpRate spreadsheet.

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