I just wanted to give a quick update on my last EUR/USD trade. After it moved 80 pips in my favor I adjusted the stop to break even and was recently stopped out. It looks like it might be trying to roll back over so I am wondering whether I made a mistake by getting out too early, but I’ll be keeping an eye on it to see if I can jump back in.

Right now the two pairs that I’m monitoring most closely are USD/JPY & GBP/CHF. The former is dropping into an area of prior consolidation and might be worth trying out on the long side. The added bonus of USD/JPY is that it also doubles as a carry trade so that I’m pulling a pretty nice interest differential the longer it remains open.

The British Pound has been holding up nicely across all pairs here recently and has been in a nice, controlled, consolidating pattern against the JPY, USD, & CHF. But since I’m already watching USD/JPY I’m more inclined to ignore the GBP/USD & GBP/JPY pairs. Which leaves GBP/CHF which also carries a nice interest rate differential and is forming a bullish consolidation pattern.

There are a couple of ways I could play the GBP/CHF. I could wait for an upwards momentum breakout from the consolidation pattern with a stop under the most recent pivot low. Or I could wait for a pullback to the 34 EMA or 50% Fibonacci retracement. I’m leaning more towards the second option because I fear that any momentum breakout to the upside might turn out to be a momentum divergence and fail as the price has advanced 1500 pips already in the past 2 months already.

If I’m wrong, then I miss out on a nice run, but if I’m right then I can get in at a much better price so we’ll see.